World Cup semifinal odds, pick

Tuesday’s showdown between Croatia and Argentina in the World Cup semifinals is full of storylines. While it seems like everyone will be cheering on Lionel Messi to win his first World Cup, Argentina has taken to a villain role in the tournament after the way they won — and celebrated — against the Netherlands. 

Argentina is a -300 favorite to advance past Croatia on BetMGM, who still may not be getting the credit they deserve despite the fact that this is their second consecutive trip to the final four. 

Croatia checked into the tournament as a +5000 outsider and wasn’t fancied by anyone, but they’ve proven to be an absolute chore in the knockout stages and will be riding high after bouncing Brazil in a penalty shootout last week.

Can Luka Modric and Croatia find some more magic? We will find out Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.

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Croatia vs. Argentina prediction

Following their shocking loss to Saudi Arabia on Matchday 1, there were plenty of questions being asked of Argentina. Did they deserve to be one of the tournament favorites? Or was the market just blinded by Messi Mania? 

La Albiceleste seemed to have answered that question by winning their final two group-stage matches and then defeating Australia. Still, even those results seemed to be hiding that this team had some serious flaws.

The market seemed to pick up on that, and the South Americans looked like they could have a lot of difficulty with a Dutch side that would be the best team they’d faced by some margin. 

Argentina would defeat the Netherlands in a fiery match that saw a record 18 yellow cards handed out, but the result was, once again, uninspiring.

La Albiceleste took a 2-0 lead thanks to a moment of brilliance from Messi and a converted penalty, but they let the Dutch back in the game and would need extra time and penalties to get through to the semifinals. 

It was a concerning sign that Argentina couldn’t put the game away, especially since they almost blew a two-goal lead to longshots Australia in their previous match. It’s hard to trust Argentina’s defense and ability to shut a game down right now.

Croatia’s defense has also looked vulnerable throughout the tournament, but the Checkered Ones seemed to have mastered the bend-but-don’t-break mentality. Despite getting out-chanced by Brazil last round, the Croatians held the tournament favorites without a goal in 90 minutes and were able to fight back in extra time to get the match to penalties, where they did what they always seem to do. 

Betting on the World Cup?

According to the stats, Croatia was lucky to survive and advance, but that’s nothing new for this team. 

And while you’d expect Argentina to be able to tilt the field against Croatia, there’s no reason to doubt that they can hang around. Brazil’s attack is much deeper and more complex than Argentina’s, and Croatia was able to stick with La Selecao last week. 

It may be an oversimplification to say that if you shut down Messi, then you will stop Argentina, but it certainly is a major part of the puzzle. And Croatia’s midfield, which has been superb once again this tournament, gives them a chance of doing that. 

Argentina is the more talented side and is deserving of their status as favorites on Tuesday, but Croatia has proven everybody wrong once again and is a live underdog against a team that has had some wobbles en route to the semifinals.

Croatia vs. Argentina pick

Croatia to win in 90 minutes (+420, FanDuel)