World Cup picks, odds Monday

December 5, 2022

Despite losing their last match of the group stage to Cameroon, the Brazilian National Team is still the betting favorite to win the 2022 World Cup. Brazil is +250 to lift the trophy, just ahead of Argentina (+470), who has already booked its spot in the quarterfinals.

Even with the blemish on their record, Brazil were superb in group play, finishing with a +2 goal differential (3 GF, 1 GA) and a +4.9 expected goal difference. The Selecao only allowed 0.9 expected goals across their three matches with Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon.

That kind of defensive performance should bode well against a South Korean side that has made a habit of hanging around in matches long enough for them to pull off something special. Here’s our pick for the Round of 16 World Cup matchup, with kickoff scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on Fox.

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Brazil vs. South Korea prediction

What the Taeguk Warriors pulled off against a Portuguese side that had very little to play for is not going to happen against Brazil. South Korea has been a high-event team through the group stage with eight total goals (4 GF, 4GA) and 7.8 expected goals (4.1 xGF, 3.5 xGA) in three matches — one of which was a 0-0 draw.

That kind of back-and-forth style should play right into Brazil’s hands and allow the Selecao to run up the score if they’ve got their finishing boots on.