USWNT’s draw with Dutch will be World Cup turning point

After 180 minutes of soccer and one big scare, the state of play is simple and the long-term outlook far more complex for the U.S. Women’s National Team.

The simple part: A win or draw against Portugal on Tuesday guarantees passage to the knockout stage.

The complicated part: It’s not so clear what to expect from this team if it gets that far.

After a 1-1 draw against the Netherlands imperiled their chances of finishing atop Group E on Wednesday night, the only guarantee is that whenever the Women’s World Cup comes to an end for the United States, we will be talking about the 1-1 draw against the Netherlands.

Whether that will be as a turning point for a team still finding its sea legs or as an ominous bit of foreshadowing, well, let’s wait and see.

“I think we’re actually really fortunate to have a pretty tough group,” forward Sophia Smith told reporters in Wellington following the match. “It’s gonna be hard to get the results we want, but that’s what we want. Because we know, as soon as we make it out [of the group], it’s gonna get harder.”

The built-in assumption that the U.S. will in fact make it out of the group is not quite guaranteed, but rest assured that a loss to Portugal would stand as an earth-shaking upset (and still require the Netherlands to take care of business against already-eliminated Vietnam for the U.S. to be eliminated).

What will matter in the latter stages of the tournament — assuming the Americans do indeed get a result Tuesday — is how the U.S. digests and responds to what happened Wednesday.

For a little over 45 minutes, the Dutch looked to be in complete control of proceedings, overloading the U.S. in midfield and using the wing backs in a 3-5-2 setup to great effect.

The obvious counter should have been to take advantage of space in the Netherlands’ back three — that did not begin to happen until Lindsey Horan took the game into her hands after taking exception to Danielle van de Donk’s tackle.

For all the focus on Horan afterward, a couple other things contributed to the tide of the game changing in the second half. Namely, the introduction of Rose Lavelle in the USWNT midfield and the departure of Dutch defender Stefanie van der Gragt.

The hope for the U.S. is that Lavelle — who was available for just 45 minutes Wednesday as she recovers from a knee injury — can build up into being a 90-minute player soon.

That may be necessary as the opposition gets harder throughout the tournament — with Sweden, which beat the USWNT in the 2021 Olympics, potentially waiting in the Round of 16.

Lavelle not only provided the assist to Horan’s equalizer but finally let the U.S. control play in the midfield. Once she was on the pitch, the ball moved quickly, and Horan became a factor after a first half in which the Dutch effectively shut her off.

U.S. coach Vlatko Andonovski left the door open to Lavelle playing 90 minutes against Portugal, which would be massive if it comes to fruition.

Andonovski, however, needs to be more adept regardless of Lavelle’s availability. Using her as the only substitution in the match when five were available was bizarre, especially with Gotham City FC forward Lynn Williams on the bench and looking like a strong option as Smith shifted to the middle of the field.

“We were around the goal the whole time, and I just didn’t want to disrupt the rhythm at that point,” Andonovski told reporters in New Zealand regarding the lack of substitutions.

It also doesn’t reflect well on the coach that the Netherlands controlled the first half using tactics that were fairly predictable. Everyone knew what was coming, so why did it take so long for the U.S. to make a move in response?

The response itself does reflect well on this team, particularly the younger players who had never been in such a situation before. Afterward, the message from the group was that facing adversity now will help them later on.

“I think the fact that this team fought back is a little bit of that mentality that we needed,” Alex Morgan told reporters. “I think it’s just an important piece to this journey that both the veterans and the new players kind of needed.”

Time will tell.