United States vs. Netherlands prediction: USWNT odds, pick Wednesday

The United States Women’s National Team will face its first significant test of the 2023 Women’s World Cup when it takes on the Netherlands in what is essentially the deciding match to see who will finish atop Group E.

The USWNT, fresh off a 3-0 win over Vietnam on Friday night, is a -145 favorite to defeat the Orange Lionesses at Wellington Stadium in New Zealand on Wednesday night (9 p.m. ET).

United States vs. Netherlands pick

(9 p.m. ET., FOX)

At this point, there are few secrets between the Netherlands and the United States.

The Americans defeated the Dutch, 2-0, in the 2019 World Cup Final and then overcame the Netherlands in penalty kicks (after a 2-2 draw) in the quarterfinals of the 2020 Olympics.

There have been changes to both lineups in the Dutch dugout since then, but the history between these two nations (and hey, the Netherlands eliminated the United States Men’s National Team in Qatar) adds to the intrigue for what will surely be one of the best matches of the first round.

The Netherlands checked into the 2023 World Cup as a +2400 dark horse, but there’s a chance that they’d be offered at slightly shorter odds had they not drawn the USWNT in their group.

Nonetheless, the Orange Lionesses have the pedigree and talent to make a deep run.

The Netherlands won Euro 2017 and were runners up to the USWNT four years ago, so it’s not out of pocket to suggest they’re a dark horse in this field.

Perhaps it would have been a little bit wild to make that suggestion under previous manager Mark Parsons, but the Orange Lionesses have looked a revitalized squad since his departure after Euro 2022.

New manager Andries Jonker has the team playing out of a 5-3-2 formation and has instituted a high press that looks to put pressure on the ball as high up the pitch as possible.

The managerial and philosophical switch seems to have worked, as the Netherlands have won eight of their last 11 matches including their tournament-opener against Portugal.

While it may not seem like a great idea to play a frenzied press against a team that can knock the ball around like the USWNT, it also could be the type of change of pace needed to upset the two-time defending champions.

Most teams prefer to put numbers behind the ball and to hit the Americans on the counter, so changing the script and forcing the USWNT into a track meet is not a bad idea.

Especially since the Dutch have plenty of starpower with Lineth Beerensteyn, Lieke Martens and Sherida Spitse.

The cold-hard truth about betting on the Women’s World Cup is that the United States Women’s National Team is always going to be overvalued.

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

Bookmakers know that the action will be lopsided for every USWNT match, and thus they know they can inflate the price on the Yanks and still balance their books.

And the action could be even more lopsided than usual for this match since it will be the only time during the group stage when the USWNT will be offered at a reasonable price on the three-way moneyline.

I’m not here to judge anybody who is in this for fun and wants to bet the United States, but I am here to say that the value in this match is with a very dangerous Dutch team. 

The Bet: The Netherlands +425 (FanDuel)