Ukraine braces for Russian offensive in Luhansk

President Vladimir Putin is massing Russia’s forces in the Luhansk province in eastern Ukraine ahead of what could be a major new offensive meant to break the stalemate in the fighting ahead of the war’s first anniversary, officials loyal to Kyiv said.

“There is an active transfer of (Russian troops) to the region and they are definitely preparing for something on the eastern front in February,” Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai said Wednesday.

Haidai added that Moscow’s forces were expelling residents living near the Russian-held parts of the front line so they can’t provide information about Russian troop movements to Ukrainian artillery forces.

That information echoed remarks made by Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, in an interview with Sky News Wednesday.

“Russia is preparing for maximum escalation,” said Danilov. “It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training.”

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, said late Tuesday that “an imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.”

A new push by Russia to regain momentum and capture more territory might coincide with the invasion anniversary on Feb. 24.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported Wednesday that Russia was also concentrating its efforts in the neighboring Donetsk region, where the Kremlin’s troops have been trying for months to capture the key city of Bakhmut, reportedly at a tremendous cost in lives.

Russian shelling of Bakhmut, from which most of its 75,000 residents have fled while others spend much of their time in cellars, killed at least five civilians and wounded 10 Tuesday, Ukraine’s presidential office.

The regional governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, posted images of the aftermath of the shelling, showing huge black holes in residential buildings in the embattled city, which both sides have described as a meat grinder. He said Russia is “actively deploying new military personnel to the region.”

Donetsk was one of four provinces that Russia illegally annexed in the fall, but it controls only about half of it. To take the rest, Russian forces have no choice but to go through Bakhmut — the only approach to bigger Ukrainian-held cities.

Moscow-installed authorities in Donetsk claimed Russian troops are “closing the ring” around the city, but the Wagner Group, the private mercenary force doing the Kremlin’s bidding, denied Wednesday that the city was surrounded.

“When the city is taken, you will certainly know about it,” Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin, who founded the paramilitary force, said in an online post.

Ukraine is in a hurry to secure more Western weapons and has them deployed as quickly as possible to fend off the Russian forces.

The US and European countries last week pledged modern battle tanks to Ukraine, but their deliveries could be months away.

Ukraine has been lobbying its allies to supply fourth-generation fighter jets, but President Biden on Monday balked at the prospect of transferring F-16s to Kyiv.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described media reports about new US military assistance to Ukraine expected to be announced soon as “a direct path to inciting tensions and taking the escalation to a new level.”

“It will require additional efforts on our part, but it won’t change the course of events,” he said in a conference call with reporters.