Tottenham vs. AC Milan odds, prediction

The 2022-23 Champions League is wide open.

Every elite team in the competition has shown some cracks in their armor this season.

Three of the best teams in the world this season (Arsenal, Manchester United, and Barcelona) are not in the competition, either because they were eliminated or didn’t qualify last year. 

Furthering the chaos is the fact that two of the pre-tournament favorites will be eliminated in the Round of 16.

Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain finish their fixture parallel to Milan vs. Spurs, while Liverpool is likely to bow out against Real Madrid after losing 5-2 in the first leg last month.

That means, when the dust settles, we could have a situation where flawed teams like Tottenham or AC Milan are one of the last teams standing.

Tottenham vs. AC Milan prediction

(3 p.m. ET, Paramount+)

AC Milan won the first leg of this fixture, 1-0, back in Italy, which means that Spurs need to win by one goal to force extra time or two goals to win.

AC Milan advances if they avoid defeat, which is why the Italian giants are sitting as -165 favorites to advance even though they are +290 underdogs on the three-way moneyline. 

It’s obvious to point out, but this situation suits Milan. Not only because they’re in the driver’s seat but also because of the stylistic matchup in this tilt.

Spurs are a team that excels when they’re allowed to sit back, cede possession and counterattack through Harry Kane, Heung-min Son, and their other attacking talents but struggles when the shoe is on the other foot.

When teams sit deep and defend, Tottenham seems to run out of ideas to break them down and create scoring chances.

Milan isn’t an elite defensive side, but the Rossoneri are solid.

Milan ranks sixth in Serie A in expected goals allowed and is the fourth-best team in the Italian top division at preventing big scoring chances.

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They are also well-drilled against set pieces, which is vital against a Spurs side that ranks second in the Premier League at creating expected goals off of set pieces this season.

It’s very hard to envision this match getting off the rails.

Milan will come to Spurs with one goal in mind, don’t concede, and hope to grind out a result that sees them through to the quarterfinals.

That should lead to a very defensive posture from the Italian side, which in turn should give the hosts fits as they try to break them down.

This should be a low-event slugfest, which is precisely what you’re looking for when you chuck a bet on the draw.

Tottenham vs. AC Milan pick

Draw +270 (BetMGM)