Sweden vs. Spain prediction, odds, pick

Sweden is in a familiar spot on Tuesday morning (4 a.m. ET).

After upsetting the United States in the Round of 16 and then doing the same to Japan in the quarterfinals, the Swedes are once again unfancied in the betting market in their semifinal tilt against Spain at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand. 

Spain, which needed extra time to defeat the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, is a -185 favorite to advance to Sunday’s final, while Sweden is +150 to pull the upset. 

Is the market still sleeping on the Swedes? 

Spain vs. Sweden prediction

(4 a.m. ET. FOX)

You could make an argument that Sweden has had the most straightforward tournament of any of the semifinalists.

Australia and Spain each had head-scratching losses in the group stage, while England struggled against Haiti and then needed extra-time to beat Nigeria in the Round of 16.

Sweden, meanwhile, went 3-0-0 in the group stage and then outlasted the USWNT in a shootout before a deserved win over Japan, which defeated Spain 4-0 in the round robin, in the quarters. 

Furthermore, Sweden has proven adaptable to different styles of play. During the group stage, Sweden was happy to be on the front foot and outplay its opposition en route to a perfect record with a +8 goal difference and +5.4 expected goal ledger.

The Swedes then opted to play a more conservative, defensive style against the USWNT and were able to hang around long enough to dispatch the pre-tournament favorites in penalties.

Sweden turned things back on offensively against a red-hot Japanese side that was scoring goals for fun before it ran into the Blue and Yellow.

Sweden and Japan essentially split the ball in the quarterfinals, but the Swedes had the edge in expected goals, shot attempts and shots on goal. 

In all likelihood, Sweden will opt to play things closer to the vest against a Spanish side that has clicked into form during the knockout stages.

Spain made quick work of Denmark in the Round of 16 and although they needed extra-time to beat the Netherlands, the expected goals showed that Spain could have won that match with relative ease had they been more clinical. 

But even with Spain looking sharp it’s hard to look away from the Swedes at this price. Sweden has already held two of the tournament’s best offenses (United States and Japan) in check and they should stand a chance to repeat that feat against Spain.

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The market seems to be re-infatuated with Spain after their performance against the Netherlands but that means it is once again overlooking a very live Sweden squad.

The Bet: Sweden to advance +150 (FanDuel)