Soccer odds, picks, best bets

The English Premier League could have a different look in 2023-24.

For the past half-decade, England’s top division has been ruled by a “Big Six” headlined by three-time defending champions Manchester City.

While City’s spot at the top of the table is likely not in too much jeopardy — the Cityzens are odds-on favorites to make it four on the spin — the chasing pack has undergone a bit of a makeover.

While the “Big Six” of City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea all have aspirations of winning the title and will be vying for a Champions League spot.

They’ll need to fend off Newcastle, which finished in fourth-place last season and has the financial backing of Saudi Arabia’s PIF, and the ascendant Brighton, which is England’s version of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Best way to bet the title race

It’s very possible that City, which kicks off the EPL schedule next Friday at Burnley, takes some time to adjust to a new season.

The Cityzens won the treble last season (Premier League, FA Cup, Champions League) and have undergone considerable change during the transfer period, so while City will eventually find its legs, it’s hard to envision it just blowing away a deep chasing pack.

The problem is that the numbers on the other contenders such as Arsenal (+500), Liverpool (+850), Manchester United (+900), Chelsea (16/1) and Newcastle (18/1) are not all that appealing, either.

The one team that could be an interesting punt is Tottenham Hotspur at 44/1 (FanDuel).

Although they probably lack the depth needed to keep pace with City and the other elite teams over a 38-match season, Spurs have undergone a bit of an overhaul this summer and new manager Ange Postecoglou should be a breath of fresh air for a club in desperate need of it.

Of the eight teams at 100/1 or shorter, Spurs probably have the widest gap between their floor and ceiling, which makes them an intriguing long-shot option.

With the top of the table looking deeper than normal, it’s likely the title race should be pretty bunched up, so I’ll back Spurs to be in the running with a chance to pick up the pieces as they get used to Postecoglou’s system.

Look out below!

Fulham was a pleasant surprise last season but a lot of the Cottagers’ success was smoke and mirrors.

Fulham finished the season in 10th-place with 52 points and a +2 goal differential, but its expected goal difference was -17.6 which suggests it punched above its weight quite a bit.

The Cottagers will also likely lose leading goal-scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic in the coming days and manager Marco Silva has had his head turned by offers in Saudi Arabia.

Fulham’s defense was among the leakiest in the league last season and there’s no sign that it will improve enough to make up for Mitrovic’s departure. The bottom could fall out on the Cottagers, making Fulham a fun bet to finish last at 20/1 (DraftKings).

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

Trying on the Boot

The Golden Boot market is not all that different from the odds to win the title.

There’s an odds-on favorite, Erling Haaland of Manchester City, and then a chasing pack of players that will need Haaland to struggle out of the gates or get injured to have a chance.

One long shot who’s worth a punt in this market is Brighton’s Evan Ferguson (50/1, BetMGM).

Only City and Arsenal scored more goals than Brighton after the World Cup last season and only the former produced more expected goals than the Seagulls in that span.

As long as Brighton keeps up that pace, Ferguson — who scored six goals in 19 matches as an 18-year-old last season — should have a chance to take a massive leap forward in 2023-24.