Sell high on EPL frontrunner

It’s been a rip-roaring start to the Premier League season for Arsenal Football Club. The Gunners sit alone atop the Premier League table as the only team that has an unblemished 3-0-0 record through the first three matchweeks.

You can’t blame Arsenal fans, who have endured some cranky seasons over the last decade, for getting carried away with optimism, but as bettors we know that there’s hardly a better time to sell high on a team than when their supporters are starting to dream of a title chase after just three games.

Arsenal are -330 favorites against newly-promoted Fulham in a London Derby on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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As much as Arsenal have impressed so far, the same can be said of Fulham, who have taken well to the Premier League through their first three matches. After drawing Liverpool, 2-2, in Week 1, the Cottagers scraped together a nil-nil tie against Wolves the following matchweek and then defeated Brentford, 3-2, last weekend. The numbers back up Fulham’s positive start, too.

Expected goals (xG) and other underlying metrics will be more noise than anything through the first three games of a 38-match marathon, but for a newly-promoted side that was one of the favorites to be relegated, sitting with a +1 goal differential and +0.3 xG difference is impressive. Those numbers could, and likely will, take a hit on the road to Arsenal, but overlook the Cottagers at your own risk. 

The numbers also paint quite a rosy picture for Arsenal, who sit with the best goal differential (+7) in the Premier League through three matches. The Gunners also lead the league in expected goals against (1.8) and boast the second-best xG differential (+3.5), but they’ve also had a relatively breezy schedule to start the season. A trip to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace is always going to be tricky, but Arsenal were able to scrap through that and then played a lame-duck Leicester side and relegation-favorites Bournemouth to get to 3-0-0. Leicester and Bournemouth put up feeble efforts against the Gunners, who deserve credit for the blowouts, but the 2-0 win over Palace in the opener did flatter the Gunners a bit. 

You can only beat the teams in front of you and everything does seem to pointing in one direction for Arsenal, but there is a decent chance that their quality of competition is making them seem like world-beaters rather than the team the market expected to see to start the season.

And Fulham have proven, against decent competition, that they’re not to be taken lightly. The Cottagers’ midfield, orchestrated by Joao Paulinha and Andreas Pereira, has given opponents fits and should provide Fulham with a platform to hang with the favorites on Saturday.

Fulham are unlikely to win, but it’s been a good start to the season for big underdogs and this number is more than worth a sprinkle in a great sell-high spot in North London.

Fulham vs. Arsenal pick

Fulham +850 — FanDuel