Recent NYC retail leasing scene fuels skepticism despite luxury retail leasing boom

The retail leasing scene not including restaurants is such a mixed picture that it’s hard to make easy generalizations.

To brokers’ and analysts’ frequent annoyance, this column is skeptical of retail data from brokerages and the Real Estate Board of New York.

We don’t doubt the diligence that goes into their research.

The problem is that retail conditions are much harder to enumerate than the office market.

The evidence of our eyes often tells a different story than statistics about “corridors.”

We agree with the statisticians that luxury retail is on a roll – at least in terms of leasing.

For example, a large new Valentino emporium is to open in November at 654 Madison Ave., the former Calvin Klein space that’s been vacant since 2019.

But as my colleague Lisa Fickenscher and I reported a few weeks ago, the city’s largest and classiest Duane Reade — with 22,000 square feet spanning a whole block in the Trump Organization’s 40 Wall Street — is closing on Oct. 9.

That store, which was much more than a pharmacy, mattered more to neighborhood residents and workers than, for example, a planned Printemps fashion emporium at Harry Macklowe’s 1 Wall Street will likely be.

Certain localized situations defy understanding. Midtown Sixth Avenue had nary a vacancy before the pandemic. Now, many corners have stood vacant for more than a year.

Today the avenue’s office towers have high physical occupancy and sidewalks are jammed.

Yet, not only are Gap and the National Hockey League gone, but even former bank branches are going dark.

Why? Several landlords are holding storefronts vacant in hope of making combined deals for retail bank branches and offices upstairs.

But so many “incredible opportunity” window signs don’t reflect an otherwise healthy market.

There’s no retail shortfall at Rockefeller Center, which includes storefronts are on Sixth Avenue.

Tishman Speyer made the complex a more relevant shopping destination than it had been in years and drew New York-centric stores such as Jackson McNally books and the Rough Trade vinyl music mecca.

Let’s hope other landlords will learn from it.