Premier League odds, prediction, pick: Chelsea vs. Leicester City

Only 13 matches remain in the 2021-22 English Premier League campaign, with three rescheduled fixtures taking place today.

None concern the top of the table, but both Aston Villa-Burnley and Everton-Crystal Palace will have an impact on the relegation fight. As it stands, Burnley finds itself in the final relegation spot a point behind Leeds United and two points out from Everton.

With that established, let’s turn to my best bets for today’s trio of fixtures.

Ohio Launch Offer: Get up to $1,500 in Bet Credits with code NPBONUS1BET

OH only. 21+. New users and first wager only. Must register with eligible promo code. Bet amount of qualifying wager returned only if wager is settled as a loss. Maximum bet credit $1,500; must be used within 14 days of receipt. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Void where prohibited. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Up to $1,250 First Bet on Caesars with code NPBONUSFULL

New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, PA, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA, WV only. Full Terms & Conditions apply.

Get a No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000!

New players only, 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CT, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA, OH, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full Terms & Conditions apply.

First Bet Offer: Get up to $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don’t Win! with code NPBONUS

21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, TN, VA, PA, OH, WV, WY only.

Bet $1, Get $200 in Bet Credits

New players only, 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in NJ, CO, VA, OH only. Deposit required. Bet Credits added to Bet Credits balance. Bet Credits risk excluded from returns. Terms & Conditions, time limits and exclusions apply.

Up to $500 in Free Second Chance Bets

New players only, 21 or older. Available in CO, IA, IN, KS, LA, MI, MD,NJ, NY, PA, VA only. Full Terms & Conditions apply.

Betfred Ohio Offer: Bet $50, Get $111 + Up To $1,000 in Fred Bets

Bettors in Ohio must be 21+ and physically located in the state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Bet $50, Get Up To $1,111 in Fred Bets!

New players only. Available in AZ, CO, IA only. 21 or older. Full T&C apply

2nd Chance Bet up to $500 with code NYPBONUS

New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, PA, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.

2nd Chance Bet up to $100 with code NYPBONUS

New players only, 21+. Available in NY only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.

Bet $20 Get $100 in Free Bets!

New WynnBet users only. Must be 21+. Offer available in AZ, CO, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA only. Full T&C Apply.

First Bet Risk-Free Up to $750 with NYPBONUS

New users only, 21+. Offer available in NJ and PA only. Full T&C apply.

Bet $20, Get $200 in Free Bets

New users only, 21+. Available in CO, MI, VA only. Full T&C apply.

Get $100 in Free Bets When You Bet $20

NJ players, 21+, first deposits only. Minimum amount to deposit: $20. Customers claiming this Sports Promotion will not be eligible to receive any other “New Customer” free bet sports promotion offer. Full T&C apply.

100% match up to $500

Claim your eligible bonus from within account after login per promotion instructions. Either way, get a 100% match up to $250 on your first deposit. Only one code may be used. First Deposit Bonus may only be claimed once per person. Must be 21+. CT only. Full T&C apply.

Bet $10, Get $125 If Your Bet Wins!

New users only, 21+. Available in MI only. Full T&C apply.

Best Bet #1 – Aston Villa/Burnley Under 2.5 Goals (-120)

Odds via BetMGM

The reverse fixture at Turf Moor saw Villa claim all three points in a 3-1 victory, but I’m expecting a low-event match at Villa Park.

Although Burnley needs to somewhat go for it, I don’t expect it to lose its shape defensively as it attempts to stay within striking distance. Plus, Villa’s attack has been running pretty hot of late — five goals on 3.9 expected in its last three fixtures — and only generated 1.58 expected goals in the reverse meeting, per fotmob.com.

Additionally, Burnley’s defense has proven somewhat reliable in matches against bottom-half opposition. Through 16 fixtures against the current bottom half, the Clarets are allowing only 1.35 expected goals per minute and have held nine of those sides to 1.3 expected goals or fewer.

At the same time, though, Burnley’s attack has left a lot to be desired in those same 16 fixtures. It has generated only 1.22 expected goals per 90 minutes and has scored one or fewer goals in all but six fixtures.

Plus, Villa’s defense has conceded only 0.91 expected goals per 90 minutes through 17 fixtures against bottom-half sides and has conceded more than once on only three occasions.

Although a 3-0 Villa blowout is a legitimate concern, I’d back this market up to -125.

Best Bet #2 – Chelsea/Leicester City Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (+110)

Odds via BetMGM

Neither of these sides have anything meaningful to play for — Chelsea have locked up third place while Leicester only have a top-half finish left as motivation — but I’m expecting a wide-open game.

The reverse fixture at the King Power produced a 3-0 Chelsea victory, but the teams combined for six big scoring chances. Additionally, Chelsea’s defense finds itself in shambles at the moment. In its last two fixtures played entirely 11v11, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has conceded three goals on 3.4 expected, per fbref.com.

Shockingly, those two matches came against Everton and Wolves, two sides that rank amongst the six-worst xG/90 sides. Leicester, meanwhile, ranks seventh in the league in that same measure and has now gotten on the scoreboard in nine of its last 10 fixtures.

Check out the best sports betting sites and apps

At the same time, though, Leicester’s defense is questionable at best. It only has one deserved clean sheet in its last 11 fixtures and has kept only seven clean sheets on the season, five of which were undeserved based on expected goals.

Additionally, through 11 fixtures against Big Six opposition, the Foxes have conceded 2.26 expected goals per 90 minutes and have held only three sides to one or fewer goals (all undeservedly).

For those reasons, play this single-game parlay up to +100.