Premier League odds, picks, bets

There are just three weeks left in the Premier League season and the race for the title is razor tight.

Arsenal will go into the weekend with a one-point lead over Manchester City, but the Cityzens have a game in hand on the Gunners.

Arsenal is a massive favorite over Bournemouth on Saturday, but this matchup could be trickier than it looks on the surface.

Arsenal (-550) vs. Bournemouth (12/1) prediction

(Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET)

There is clearly a must-win tax baked into this line because this match will be much trickier than these odds suggest.

Bournemouth may not have the name recognition of the bigger clubs in the Premier League, but the Cherries have been one of the most impressive teams in the competition this season.

Pegged as a relegation candidate, the Cherries struggled out of the gates under new manager Andoni Iraola. But the front office preached patience with Iraola and it’s paid off in a big way.

Bournemouth is currently sitting in 10th place in the circuit and has a chance to finish in the top half of the Premier League for just the second time in its history. 

And it would be well-deserved.

Only four teams (Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa) have collected more points than Bournemouth since Dec. 1 and only City, Arsenal and Liverpool boast a better expected goal difference in that span. 

What’s more is that this could be a tricky stylistic matchup for Arsenal. 

Bournemouth plays an all-action, high-pressing style of soccer that will force the Gunners to come out of their shell and move the ball quickly.

The Gunners prefer to be in complete control of matches and build up slowly from the back, but Bournemouth, led by Wappingers Falls, N.Y., native and USMNT midfielder Tyler Adams, will do everything it can to not allow that to happen.

And unlike other lesser-talented teams that play a more risky style out of possession, Bournemouth’s defensive numbers are actually quite impressive.

The Cherries rank eighth in non-penalty expected goals against and sixth in preventing big scoring chances. 

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Every price attached to Bournemouth is tempting Saturday morning and I will certainly take a shot on the full-game moneyline, but my favorite play is to bet on the Cherries to win the first half at +850 odds.

It could take some time for Arsenal, which needs to win this match to realistically have a chance to capture the title, to adjust to the frenzied pace that Bournemouth will play and that could open up a chance for the Cherries to get on the board first. 

Recommendation: Bournemouth first-half moneyline (+800, FanDuel).