Premier League odds, picks, bets

Thursday afternoon’s soccer match between Newcastle and Everton should be a doozy.

Not only will the atmosphere in Goodison Park be electric as the fans continue their protest against the club’s 10-point deduction, but the game itself should be quite entertaining with two quick-striking teams in good form facing off.

It’s also Anthony Gordon’s return to Goodison after he left Everton on not-so-great terms.

Newcastle is a +130 road favorite on the three-way moneyline.

Newcastle vs. Everton prediction

(2:30 p.m. ET. Peacock)

If you just look at the table, you’d think Everton have been dreadful this season. The Toffees sit in 18th place and are two points behind Luton Town in the relegation race.

But the Toffees had 10 points deducted for breaching Financial Fair Play regulations and “should” be in 12th-place with 17 points and out of reach of the drop zone.

And while Everton fans will feel fortunate that the deduction came this season and not in the previous two when they would have been relegated with the punishment, they will also feel slighted because the Toffees have played like a top-half side this season.

Everton is one of eight teams in the Premier League with a positive expected goal difference, and according to Understat’s expected points metric, they should have around 22 points on the campaign. Only seven teams rank above them in that category.

Newcastle has proven to be one of the best clubs in Europe over the past season and a half, but the Magpies are banged up at the moment and should have their hands full with an Everton attack that ranks sixth in shots per 90 minutes and sixth in creating big scoring chances. 

As impressive as Everton’s attack has been under Sean Dyche, they will be the second-best unit on the field Thursday. Even without some key pieces, Newcastle is a potent group that ranks first in creating big scoring chances and second in non-penalty expected goals. 

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Both these teams like to get the ball and move it forward, so we should have plenty of back-and-forth action throughout the 90 minutes. That puts some value on the Over 2.5 goals.

The Bet: Over 2.5 (-115, BetMGM)