Our two best picks for 2022 group stage

After breaking down Team USA’s futures outlook for the 2022 World Cup, we’re onto the field as a whole today.

We’ll begin with our analysis of the various group futures markets available for the tournament. Bettors interested in these markets will usually find two different markets available — to win the group and to advance from the group.

The former is simply a bet on which nation will finish atop their respective group while a “to advance” bet cashes if the team finishes either first or second.

For me, I’m choosing to focus on the former market for my pair of plays with four months until the tournament begins. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

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Best Bet #1 – PARLAY: Argentina to Win Group C & Belgium to Win Group F (+135)

Argentina will arrive in Qatar as the champions of South America after winning the Copa America in 2021.

While there’s definitely talent in their group — Robert Lewandowski could easily carry Poland to a strong finish while Mexico has solid pieces throughout — Argentina is without a doubt the cream of this group. Dating back to June 2021, Argentina has yet to lose a match and finished with the highest xGDiff at the Copa America (+9.3), per fbref.com.

Additionally, just in three Copa America matches against fellow World Cup qualifiers, Argentina was 3-0-0 and generated almost 1.7 xG/90 minutes in those three fixtures. That will be a key factor for Argentina as it wins Group C.

As for Belgium, I’m choosing not to overthink this group. Realistically, Croatia is their biggest competition to win the group and it was incredibly disapppointing at the European Championships.

Amongst all 32 teams, the 2018 World Cup finalists finished with the fifth-worst expected goal differential in the tournament. Plus, just in their last two head-to-head meetings, Belgium is 2-0-0 against the Croats.

Although it has plenty of issues of its own, Belgium should cruise through this group comfortably. Plus, it’s worth noting Belgium has won its group in three consecutive major tournaments. As a result, manager Roberto Martinez’s squad should be a safe bet to finish atop Group F.

Best Bet #2 – Denmark to Win Group D (+280)

France, the reigning World Cup champions, currently sit as the favorite to win this group. However, I give Denmark a better percentage chance than their implied odds suggest.

At the 2021 European Championships, Denmark actually finished with a better expected goal differential than France, albeit with two additional matches played. Further, these sides actually faced each other not too long ago (June 3, 2022), with Denmark producing a 2-1 victory over France.

Most impressively, that victory came at the Stade de France. These sides will meet again in Denmark in late September, and another Denmark result could see a shift in the odds.

Let’s also not forget this Denmark attack proved prolific at the European Championships. Prior to its head-to-head meeting with England, which has established itself as Denmark’s kryptonite, the Danes created 1.8 expected goal per 90 minutes while allowing only 0.9 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Those type of metrics should allow Denmark to run up the score against Tunisia and Australia. Add in that Denmark dominated in World Cup Qualifying — 8-1-0 (W-L-D) with a +27 goal differential — and I would play it at +225 or better to win this group.