New Iowa poll shows Trump’s GOP support dwindling

A new survey indicates that former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are in a dead heat in the early voting state of Iowa — as DeSantis made his first trip to the Hawkeye State as a prospective presidential candidate Friday.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found that 80% of self-identified Republicans in the state had a “very favorable” or “mostly favorable” view of the 76-year-old former president, while 75% said the same of DeSantis.

A slightly higher proportion held “very favorable” views of Trump (44%) than DeSantis (42%), but other data indicates support for the 45th president is softening ahead of the 2024 caucuses.

Just 47% of Iowa Republicans say they would definitely vote for Trump if he is the GOP’s 2024 nominee, down from 69% in June 2021. The percentage who said they would “probably not” vote for Trump, “definitely not” vote for Trump, or sit out the presidential vote altogether if he was the Republican standard-bearer increased to 12% from 5% in June 2021.

“There’s nothing locked in about Iowa for Donald Trump,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, told the Des Moines Register.

“Iowa is where the competition starts,” said Selzer. “And someone who has already held the office and who won the state twice [in 2016 and 2020] would be presumed to be the front-runner, and I don’t know that we can say that at this point.”

The survey also showed Trump’s overall favorability has dropped 11 percentage points from September 2021 while his unfavorability rating (18%) has grown by the same amount over the same period. The proportion of self-described independents who hold favorable views of Trump (35%) has dropped five percentage points from October of last year, while 63% of those potential voters view him unfavorably.

Meanwhile, DeSantis’ approval rating among Iowa GOPers has room to grow, with 20% “not sure” how they feel about him — while just 1% say the same of Trump.

The poll was released as DeSantis, Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley — the only other declared Republican candidate — are touring or plan to visit the Hawkeye State.

DeSantis arrived for events in Davenport and Des Moines Friday amid reports that he has privately expressed a desire to run for president in 2024. Haley has spent three consecutive days in the state this week, while former vice president Mike Pence — who has not yet formally announced a run — is scheduled to visit next weekend.

The poll found that just 17% of Iowa Republicans had “mostly favorable” views of Pence and 16% said the same of Haley — cementing the perception of the race as a shootout between Trump and DeSantis.

The former president is scheduled to give a speech on education in Davenport Monday night, just three days after DeSantis made remarks there.

The Iowa Poll surveyed 257 self-described Republicans by telephone between March 5 and 8, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 6.1 percentage points.