Manchester United vs. Newcastle prediction: Premier League odds, pick

December 2, 2023

The momentum that Manchester United was building over the past few weeks came to a halt Wednesday in Istanbul.

The Red Devils raced out to a 2-0 lead at Galatsaray in the Champions League, but once again found a way to blow it and put themselves on the brink of being eliminated from the competition.

United now has to travel to Newcastle for a massive match in the race at the top of the Premier League. This is the busiest part of the season, and both Manchester United and Newcastle are dealing with plenty of injuries, but there’s a pretty sizable gap between these two clubs at the moment.

Newcastle is a -105 home favorite Saturday afternoon.

Manchester United vs. Newcastle Prediction

On paper, it looks like Manchester United has got back on track domestically.

The Red Devils have won three on the spin and five of their last six, but those results are masking plenty of problems with the process at Old Trafford. A lot of United’s messy play can be chalked up to poor injury luck, but the cracks were showing for this team right out of the gate this season.

Manchester United's Alejandro Garnacho, left, celebrates with Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes, right, and Manchester United's Rasmus Hojlund after scoring his side's opening goal during the Champions League group A soccer match between Galatasaray and Manchester United in Istanbul, Turkey, Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023. — Manchester United’s Alejandro Garnacho, left, celebrates with Bruno Fernandes, right, and Rasmus Hojlund after scoring on Nov. 29
AP

Although United has pitched three clean sheets in its last five matches across all competitions, the expected goals data suggests that has more to do with strong goalkeeping and poor finishing from their opponents than sturdy defensive work. The Red Devils have allowed conceded 7.5 xG in their last five matches to the likes of Fulham, Copenhagen, Luton Town, Everton and Galatasaray.

If those teams are having very little issue causing issues for United, then Newcastle has every chance to be rampant Saturday afternoon.

The Magpies rank fifth in the Premier League in expected goals for and big scoring chances created and have a clinical finisher in Alexander Isak. Newcastle is unlikely to be wasteful when it gets chances.