Manchester United vs. Manchester City prediction: Premier League pick today

January 13, 2023

At the start of the Premier League season, it looked like the two Manchester clubs were going in different directions. Manchester City was the odds-on favorite to win the title, while United was expected to look like a club in transition under first-year manager Erik ten Hag.

Both teams seemed to be following that script out of the gates, but recently the gap between the Red and Blue Side of Manchester has significantly dwindled.

Dare we say that Manchester United is back?

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Manchester United vs. Manchester City prediction (7:30 a.m. ET, USA Network)

The World Cup really has thrown the entire Premier League season for a loop, but it seems to have really done a number on Manchester City. As you’d expect for the best team on the planet, City had several players travel to Qatar for the tournament and it seems that has thrown the team into a bit of a funk.

There’s no reason to panic, but watching the Cityzens draw at home to Everton and lose in the Carabao Cup to Southampton does make you wonder where Pep Guardiola’s side is at right now.

Manchester United, meanwhile, have been in terrific form for quite a while. The Red Devils have gone 15-2-1 (W-D-L) across all competitions since losing to City on Oct. 2 and United will check into this Manchester Derby riding an eight-match winning streak.

The quality of competition over United’s eight-match run can be called into question, but if you look at their resume over the entire season you’ll see impressive wins over Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.

The underlying numbers support United’s rise. Since Oct. 1, the Red Devils have posted a +9.6 expected goal differential in 11 Premier League matches. Those numbers should equate to roughly 22 points in the standings, per UnderStat’s xPoints metric. In reality, United has amassed 23 points over that span. Everything lines up.

City are the best team in the world on paper and their numbers back up that notion, but we’ve seen them stumble a couple times already this season and they just aren’t at the height of their powers right now. City lost to Brentford the week before the World Cup pause and have thrown in two poor results since returning. It really does seem like they’re taking some time to get back into rhythm.

That makes this a golden opportunity to try and take on the Cityzens with a team in great form, playing in front of what should be an absolutely raucous home crowd.