Manchester United vs. Liverpool prediction, odds

It’s been a tale of two seasons for eternal rivals Liverpool and Manchester United. While Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool continues to cement their spot as one of this era’s best teams, United remains a mess and is now looking forward to next season when new manager Erik ten Hag takes over.

With the way these two teams have been trending, it shouldn’t be a shock to see the odds this wide. Liverpool are prohibitive -260 favorites on the three-way moneyline, while United is a +700 long shot and the draw is sitting at +425.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: Liverpool -275 | Tie +425 | Manchester United +675

Total: Over 3.5 (+130) | Under 3.5 (-185)

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Manchester United vs. Liverpool prediction

Liverpool is 18-5-1 (win-draw-loss) across all competitions in 2022 and has not lost a Premier League match since Dec. 28. The Reds have allowed just six goals in their last 12 EPL matches and four of those six tallies came in 2-2 draws against Chelsea (third place) and Manchester City (first). The last team outside of the top-3 to score at least two goals against the Reds was West Ham back on Nov. 7.

As impressive as Liverpool’s defensive record is, there is reason to believe that some regression is coming for the Reds. Liverpool has only conceded six goals in the EPL since New Year’s Day, but according to their expected goals (xG) against, that number should be closer to 10. Of course, part of the disparity between Liverpool’s GA and xGA has to do with Alisson, the team’s all-world goalkeeper, but at some point, you’d expect Liverpool to start conceding some goals to teams other than City and Chelsea. 

And Liverpool’s hot-running defense should be handed a stern test on Tuesday afternoon. For all of their flaws — and there are many — Manchester United is one of the Premier League’s best sides at creating scoring chances. The Red Devils rank fifth in the EPL in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and they are sixth in big chances created. 

Manchester United’s defense has been a complete mess of late — and that’s a big problem against Liverpool’s league-leading attack — but if United can keep Liverpool somewhat in check, the door should be open for the Red Devils to make a game of this.

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United could also benefit from an advantageous spot. This will be Liverpool’s sixth match in 17 days and they have two more to come over the next eight days. The Reds have played two legs of a Champions League quarterfinal against Benfica and two matches against Man City in the Premier League and the FA Cup Semifinals. You have to imagine that, at some point, all this high-stakes soccer will catch up to Liverpool. Perhaps a Manchester United side, one that should be motivated after two bad performances against Everton and Norwich City, could be the squad that catches Liverpool on an off night.

At +700, the odds imply that Manchester United wins this game 12.5% of the time. Even in their current form, this seems like a good buy opportunity on a team that has likely hit rock bottom and should start to trend up.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool prediction: Manchester United +700 (FanDuel) (down to +670)