Manchester United vs. Leicester City prediction: Premier League picks

September 1, 2022

Don’t look now, but the crisis at Manchester United is seemingly over. Two wins on the spin over Liverpool and Southampton have considerably lowered the temperature at Old Trafford, which has in turn, raised the market’s perception of the Red Devils.

Speaking of clubs in crisis, Leicester City are off to a dismal start in 2022-23 and rumors have been circulating that manager Brendan Rodgers is on shaky footing at the King Power Stadium. It’s hard to blame Rodgers for the club’s sluggish start, but it does feel like the Foxes are in a bit of a lame-duck phase and any jolt could be beneficial.

While most Premier League clubs have spent the summer splashing obscene amounts of money on player transfers, Leicester have been remarkably quiet even after losing longtime goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel and star center-back Wesley Fofana.

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Manchester United vs. Leicester City prediction

Winless through four matches and with no reinforcements yet in the door, it’s easy to see why the market has completely tanked on the Foxes, who are +235 home underdogs against Manchester United on Thursday.

But buy back on United at your own risk. Although the Red Devils looked rejuvenated in their impressive win over Liverpool 10 days ago, they were pretty lucky to follow that performance up with a 1-0 win at Southampton. The expected goals ended 1.6 to 1.1 in favor of the Saints in that match, but United was able to escape with three points thanks to a moment of magic from Bruno Fernandes. The overall numbers paint a similarly pedestrian picture for United as they currently sit with a -3 goal differential and a -1.2 xG differential.

Leicester’s statistical portfolio isn’t anything to write home about either, as only newly-promoted Bournemouth and Nottingham boast a more dire expected goal differential than Leicester’s through four matches. The Foxes have been a decent attacking outfit for quite some time thanks to players like Jamie Vardy, James Maddison, and Youri Tielemans, but they’ve struggled to create scoring chances out of the gates and sit 19th in expected goals for (3.2) to start the campaign.

It truly does feel like things have gotten stale at Leicester City, and their play reflects that notion, but there’s still more than enough attacking talent on this side to give United issues. The Red Devils have won two matches in a row, but the defense is still vulnerable and currently sits with the fifth-worst xGA in the Premier League.

In a matchup between a team that was in a crisis two weeks ago and one that is still mired in one right now, buy low on the Foxes and hope that they can sort things out against a still-shaky United side.