Luton Town vs. West Ham prediction: Premier League odds, picks

May 11, 2024

It is the penultimate Match Week of the 2023-24 Premier League season and we’ve still got plenty of drama to sort out.

Arsenal will go into the weekend with a one-point lead over Manchester City at the top of the table, but the Cityzens have a game in hand on the Gunners and thus are a -360 favorite to win their fourth straight title.

The relegation battle is also still in the balance as Burnley (24 points), Luton Town (26 points) and Nottingham Forest (29 points) are scrapping for the final spot in the Premier League next season.

Burnley and Forest play one another on the final day of the campaign, so a win for the Clarets and a loss for Forest this weekend could set up quite the spectacle next weekend.

Luton Town vs. West Ham prediction, pick

(10 a.m. ET Saturday)

This one has the potential to look more like a basketball game, with the teams going up and down the field trading scoring chances, than a high-stakes soccer match.

It became clear early on in the season that Luton Town’s defensive flaws meant that it would need to score its way to safety, so the Hatters essentially threw caution into the wind and adopted a playing style that would give them the best chance to do just that.

And while Luton has managed to post a decent offensive output (relative to their expectations), they still own a -29 goal difference (49 GF, 78 GA) and a -33.6 expected goal differential.

Those numbers are ugly, but the good news is that they’re taking on a West Ham defense that is just as leaky as they are this season.

Is West Ham on upset alert this wekeend? — Is West Ham on upset alert this weekend? Offside via Getty Images

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The Hammers have conceded 70 goals (17th-most) and 68.9 xG (18th) this campaign and have shown no signs of improving down the stretch, which makes sense since they have nothing to play for, and it’s been announced that manager David Moyes will leave the club at the end of the season.

With West Ham already on the beach, I’ll back Luton Town in a must-win match.

The bet: Luton Town +275 (DraftKings)