Leicester City vs. Newcastle prediction: Premier League odds, pick

It’s hard to imagine the stakes being higher for Monday afternoon’s Premier League match between Newcastle and Leicester City.

While the Magpies need just a point to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2002-03, the Foxes desperately need a win to avoid relegation.

Leicester enters this match with 30 points, putting them three behind 17th-place Everton. Leicester has two matches (including this one) left to play, while Everton has one.

Additionally, Leicester’s goal difference is the best of the three teams that are still threatened by relegation. Everton owns a -24 goal differential, while Leeds is at -27.

In other words, if Leicester upsets Newcastle, the Foxes will be in the driver’s seat to avoid relegation on the final matchday of the season. 

The only problem is that Newcastle is a -280 to win on Monday.

Leicester vs. Newcastle prediction

(3 p.m. ET. USA Network)

As with any team fighting to stay in the league, Leicester has had plenty of problems this season, but the biggest red flags pop up on the defensive side of the ball.

Leicester ranks 16th in goals allowed, 18th in non-penalty expected goals conceded, and 15th in big-scoring chances against.

In seasons past, Leicester’s offensive talent would be enough for it to overcome these issues in its own end, but that wasn’t the case in 2022-23.

Leicester ranks middle of the pack in almost every offensive category and has endured some inconsistent campaigns (due to injury or lack of form) from Jamie Vardy, Kelechi Iheanacho, and Patson Daka.

That has left almost all of the burden offensively to fall on James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, which was never going to be enough considering how poorly the Foxes defend.

And outscoring their defensive misgivings seems like a tall order against Newcastle.

Not only do the Magpies rank fifth in goals scored this season, but they’re a top-six club by basically every offensive metric. 

But it’s not Newcastle’s offense that has been the story of the season.

It’s been the team’s surprisingly elite defensive work.

Only Manchester City has conceded fewer goals than Newcastle, which also ranks second in non-penalty expected goals allowed. 

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All the numbers in this matchup point to a stroll in the park for Newcastle, but that is a dangerous assumption to make since Leicester is playing for survival.

Thus, instead of just backing the Magpies to win, the way to bet on this match is to look at Newcastle’s team total.

Leicester needs to be on the front foot and do everything possible to win this match, so you can expect the Foxes, who already play a pretty chaotic style, to open things up even further.

And if they fall behind, that should only force them to put the pedal to the metal even more. Newcastle should have plenty of chances to find the back of the net in this one.

Leicester City vs. Newcastle pick

The Bet: Newcastle O2.5 goals (+105, BetMGM)