Italy vs. South Africa odds, pick

The Women’s World Cup has a reputation for being chalky — especially in the group stage – but the 2023 iteration has been a breath of fresh air.

Not only have there been an encouraging amount of upsets from countries like the Philippines, New Zealand, Jamaica and Colombia, but we also saw Nigeria qualify for the Round of 16 ahead of Canada, the reigning Olympic gold medalists.

South Africa will look to write its own fairytale by punching its ticket to the knockout stage with a win over Italy on Wednesday morning (3 a.m. ET). 

Italy vs. South Africa pick

(3 a.m. ET.)

Group G looked pretty straightforward.

The bookmakers had Sweden as a clear favorite, while Italy was expected to overcome Argentina in the hunt for second.

South Africa, meanwhile, was a longshot to even factor into the drama.

Things seemed to be tidy after Sweden beat South Africa and Italy defeated Argentina in the opening slate of matches in the round-robin.

But then things got interesting when Italy got absolutely demolished by Sweden, 5-0, while South Africa and Argentina played to a 2-2 draw that saw Banyana Banyana blow a two-goal lead late in the second half.

It was the second match of the tournament in which the South Africans had a late lead wiped away.

Despite the disappointment of blowing multiple leads late in matches, South Africa would have absolutely signed up to be in this position before the tournament started.

If Banyana Banyana defeat Italy, they’re likely to advance, as Argentina will be a big underdog against Sweden on Wednesday (South Africa currently owns the tie-breaker edge over Argentina thanks to having more goals scored).

And even though South Africa is a hefty price against Italy (Banyana Banyana is currently +380 to pull the upset over Le Azzurre), some signals suggest this will not be a straightforward match for the Italians. 

Not only has South Africa had leads over both Sweden and Argentina in this tournament, but they’ve also got a positive expected goal difference, which suggests they’re a little unfortunate to not be sitting with a better record through the first two matches.

Banyana Banyana lost on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.2, in their 2-1 defeat to Sweden, but they were terrific against Argentina, posting 2.1 expected goals and conceding just 0.8.

Italy, on the other hand, conceded five goals on 3.4 xG against the Swedes after edging Argentina, 1-0, in a low-event match that saw both teams create under 1.0 xG.

Le Azzurre have only created 1.0 xG across both matches so far.

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Italy is the more talented side in this match by a wide margin, but South Africa has been much better than anybody expected on both sides of the ball and should be able to create plenty of chances against a defense that just got its doors blown off.

There’s no reason not to back South Africa at this price.

The Bet: South Africa +390 (FanDuel)