Hurricane Milton shifts south away from Tampa: forecast

COCKROACH BAY, Florida — Nearly six million Florida residents are under mandatory evacuation orders as monster storm Hurricane Milton threatens the western coast with the possibility of once-in-a-century damage when it makes landfall late Wednesday.

Water-logged debris from Hurricane Helene — which hit the Sunshine state less than two weeks ago — still lines the streets of Ruskin on the southeast side of Tampa Bay.

The water is projected to get much higher this time — with up to 15 feet of storm surge predicted. And the force will be dramatically more violent.

Debris on the side of the road in Ruskin, Florida on Oct. 8, 2024. Steve Helling/NYPost
Ruskin residents are still recovering from Hurricane Helene hitting the region last week. Steve Helling/NYPost

Milton gained strength on Tuesday after weakening slightly from one of the most powerful Category 5 storms on record. By the evening, winds picked up to 155 mph, just shy of returning to Cat 5 force.

The errant couches, patio furniture and even boats cast asunder by last month’s storm will likely become deadly projectiles in the wake of Milton’s wrath.

Officials have been pleading and threatening residents in evacuation zones to leave.


Follow the latest from The Post on Hurricane Milton:


“If you choose to stay … you are going to die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor bluntly told CNN, adding that a “literally catastrophic” major hurricane was barreling toward the Sunshine State.

Traffic on Interstate 75 in Valdosta, Georgia caused by people evacuating Florida ahead of Milton’s arrival on Oct. 8, 2024. ERIK S LESSER/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
A man carrying bottled water out of a boarded up store in St. Petersburg in preparation for Milton on Oct. 8, 2024. Getty Images
People in St. Petersburg filling up bags of sand on Oct. 8, 2024. Getty Images

Despite the warning, 80-year-old Charlotte Farrell in Ruskin off of Cockroach Bay told The Post that she isn’t going anywhere.

“Everyone says I should go to a shelter for this one, my son says I need to. I haven’t decided yet. I’m not leaving town, this is my home. But I can decide to go to the middle school later if I want shelter there,” she said referring to Shields Middle School, which has been designated as a shelter.

“The police went door to door yesterday telling us that we should get out, mostly because this is a trailer and we’re in a flood zone. They said it’s mandatory, but if we don’t, we’re responsible for what happens to us.”

Ruskin resident Charlotte Farrell, 80, told The Post that she isn’t going to evacuate despite warnings from state officials. Steve Helling/NYPost

Farrell lives in a tidy mobile home in Ruskin, which is still reeling from apocalyptic flooding brought by Hurricane Helene, which left residents in standing water for several days.

Recalling last month’s deadly storm, Ruskin said she went to retrieve a towel after seeing some water on her kitchen floor, but by that time the water had already risen to ankle level.

As the water reached her knees, she said, “I wondered if it was going to stop. I thought I’d have to climb onto the table but then [the water] stopped rising,” she said, noting she sat on the back of her couch with her feet on the cushions as she waited out the deluge.

Officer Ruskin residents told The Post they plan to evacuate ahead of Milton’s arrival. Steve Helling/NYPost

“The waters actually went down quick, but it ruined a lot of my things. I had to throw out a mattress and the sofa and a lot of upholstered things.”

Near Farrell’s home, a family heeding the advice of local and state officials were packing up their SUV to get out of harm’s way.

“We had some flooding last time, but not as bad as most people in town,” says Ruskin resident Ben McLean.

“Just really in the screen room. But this time it could be worse so we’re going to Orlando. Get away from this s–t.” 

Recent forecasts for Hurricane Milton show the storm’s path has shifted south, however, meteorologists warn Tampa may not be in the clear just yet. FoxWeather
The hurricane’s path will likely continue to “wobble” north and south before it makes landfall on Wednesday. National Hurricane Center / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

More than 5,000 National Guard troops have already been deployed to the storm-ravaged region, which Gov. Ron DeSantis said was the biggest pre-storm deployment in the state’s history.

The good news is that forecasts have Hurricane Milton shifting south — away from the worst-case-scenario track that put Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater directly in its path.

Most models on Tuesday night had the storm hitting around Sarasota, which would spare the metro area, with 3.2 million people, from the worst of the storm.

But that doesn’t mean Tampa is in the clear, according to meteorologists, who warned anyone in an evacuation zone to leave before it’s “too late.”

A satellite image of Milton in the Gulf of Mexico at 5 p.m. on Oct. 8, 2024. RAMMB/CIRA

Milton’s path will continue to shift until it makes landfall sometime between late Wednesday and just after midnight on Thursday as it approaches Florida’s Gulf Coast — making it impossible for meteorologists to know exactly when and where it will hit hardest.

“There’s going to be a lot of little minor shifts as the storm intensifies and tries to maintain that intensity as it moves towards Florida,” FOX Weather meteorologist Stephanie van Oppen told The Post.

“Any shift, even just a couple of miles, is going to have a big impact, especially for the Tampa Bay region, just because of how that area is geographically set up,” she said.

A boarded up building with the message “Tampa Strong” in Tampa on Oct. 8, 2024. AFP via Getty Images

The storm’s unpredictability is why most counties and cities have recommended Floridians evacuate, van Oppen said, adding that “by the time we know exactly what might happen, it will be too late for residents to leave.”

Residents can expect the hurricane’s path to also continue to “wobble” north and south over the next 36 hours.

However, since the storm is so severe and expected to bring life-threatening floods and storm surges, forecasters are advising anyone in evacuation zones to make plans to leave the area.

“Because the storm is so strong and so intense, I would recommend that no one take the risk of being anywhere in a zone that’s recommended to evacuate, just in case things do wobble north or south, that would cause worse impacts for any individual region,” van Oppen said.