Group E analysis, pick, odds, breakdown

Perhaps no team in the entire World Cup got a tougher group draw than Japan.

Considered the best team in Asia and a potential gate-crasher in Qatar, the hype around Japan as a potential sleeper dissipated after Samurai Blue were placed in Group E with European powerhouses Spain and Germany — winners of two of the last three tournaments — along with longshot Costa Rica. 

Odds to advance from Group E (Caesars):

• Spain: -900
• Germany: -700
• Japan: +350
• Costa Rica: +850

World Cup Group E pick: Japan to advance +3400 (FanDuel)

One look at those odds, and it seems plainly obvious who everyone expects to get out of Group E. It’s just a matter of who finishes in first between Spain and Germany. 

But overlook Japan at your own risk. 

A counter-attacking side that looks to cause high turnovers and then turn them into quick-hitting scoring chances, Japan’s strengths could play right into Spain and Germany’s weaknesses.

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Both Spain and Germany are possession dominant teams that want the ball at their feet for as much of the game as possible so that their talented creative players can impose their will. Against weaker opposition, like Costa Rica, you can expect the two European giants to have the ball for three-quarters of the match and not really break a sweat. 

But against Japan, it will be a different story. While Samurai Blue won’t have much of the ball against Germany and/or Spain, when they do have it, they can cause plenty of issues. Spain and Germany both struggle to defend in transition, which is what Japan does best.

Always looking to pounce on errors and turn them into scoring chances going the other way, Japan’s high-energy style makes them a stylistic nightmare for any side that struggles to get organized quickly in defense. That could spell bad news for the favorites in Group E, but it’s especially noteworthy against Germany, whose defense has been called into question over the past couple of years.

After 15 years under Joachim Low, the Germans are now managed by former Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick, a very aggressive manager who wants his team to send as many bodies forward as possible. That style can overwhelm plenty of teams — especially with the creative talent on this roster — but if the Germans are off rhythm by even a step, they’re very vulnerable to counterattacks, and teams that can strike quickly should have some joy against them. Japan fits that bill. 

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And when Japan gets the ball, they have talented players to make good use of it. Takumi Minamino didn’t light it up at Liverpool, but he can pull the strings in attack. Furthermore, Takehiro Tomiyasu (Arsenal) is a great ball-playing defender who can get this team moving in the right direction quickly. Other creative talents like Junya Ito (Stade de Reims), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), Daichi Kamada (Frankfurt), and Daizen Maeda (Celtic) give Japan enough playmaking and scoring depth to make them a more dynamic side than most of the other longshots in this field. 

Japan’s path to the knockout stage is really tough. Samurai Blue will, in all likelihood, need to cause an upset over Germany or Spain to get through, but should they pull it off, the path really opens up. 

Group E is correlated with a very soft Group F in the knockout stage, meaning the winner of Group E plays the second-place team in Group F in the Round of 16 and vice versa.

The two best teams in Group F are Belgium and Croatia, but there are legitimate question marks about both of those teams heading into this tournament. Belgium’s “Golden Generation” is now well beyond its prime, and their defense is a serious concern. At the same time, 2018 runners-up Croatia are an even older side with no significant strengths other than Luka Modric’s presence in the middle of the field. 

Plenty of people are picking at least one of Belgium or Croatia to miss the knockout rounds at the hands of Morocco or Canada. And even if Group F is chalky and Belgium advances with Croatia, they will be vulnerable in the Round of 16, no matter the opponent. 

So if Japan does get through Group E against the odds, they’ll have a winnable matchup in the Round of 16 and have a legitimate chance of gate-crashing the quarterfinals.

Despite being drawn into a group with Spain and Germany, Japan are a live sleeper in this tournament. Getting into the knockout stage will require something special, lucky, or both, but should Samurai Blue accomplish that, there’s a lot of upside on how far this team can advance. 

There are several ways to play the Japanese in this tournament. You can take a shot on them to advance from Group E at +350, back them on the moneyline against Germany and Spain or join the fun by taking Samurai Blue to make it to the semi-finals at +3400 (FanDuel).