Fulham vs. Chelsea prediction: Soccer odds, picks Thursday

Things are not going well for Graham Potter at Chelsea. 

After starting his career at Stamford Bridge with a nine-match unbeaten streak in all competitions (six wins, three draws), Potter’s side has come unglued over their last nine games. Chelsea has two wins, a draw, and six losses with a -11 goal differential in that span, and their two wins came against Bournemouth and Dinamo Zagreb.

It’s ugly for the Blues right now, and a Thursday afternoon match with Fulham could be tricky.

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Fulham vs. Chelsea prediction (3 p.m. ET)

Marco Silva’s Fulham have been thoroughly impressive since bouncing back up to the Premier League. The Cottagers are sitting in seventh place and tied on points with Liverpool for sixth, which would earn them a spot in the Europa League next season. 

There was some belief that Fulham could surprise in its return to the top flight, but nobody saw this coming.

And even though things look just swell right now, there is reason to believe that the Cottagers may start to trend down as we head towards the second half of the season.

For one, Fulham just doesn’t have the squad depth to keep up with the teams around them in the table right now. As the fixtures continue to pile up, Silva’s squad could be stretched thin.

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But what’s most concerning is the team’s defensive form. No team in the Premier League allows more expected goals per match than the Cottagers. Fulham also concedes more big scoring chances (more than 0.35 xG) than any other team in the circuit.

Fulham seems to be happy leaving itself open in order to create offense, but we’re not talking about an elite offensive force here. The Cottagers rank 10th in the Premier League in expected goals and 12th in big scoring chances created this season.

Chelsea’s defense has struggled of late, but the Blues should be able to contain Fulham’s attack, which is very reliant on Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has scored 11 of Fulham’s 30 goals this season. 

And even if the Blues do concede a goal or two, the attack should be able to create enough scoring chances to overwhelm a defense that is there for the taking. 

Perhaps we haven’t seen the bottom yet for Graham Potter’s Chelsea, but this looks like a decent buy-low spot on a team — and an offense — that desperately needs to get its season back on track. A leaky Fulham defense could be just what the doctor ordered.

Fulham vs. Chelsea pick

Chelsea +115 (FanDuel)