English Premier League picks, predictions: Brentford vs. Chelsea

October 19, 2022

Finding the right time to sell high on a team or player is a foundational pillar of sports betting. And for Chelsea Football Club, that time has come.

The Blues are a perfect 3-0-0 in the Premier League under new manager Graham Potter and have outscored their opponents 7-1 in that span.

And while you can only beat the teams put in front of you, the quality of competition during Potter’s still nascent tenure at Stamford Bridge has been lacking. Even though they took all nine points in their wins over Crystal Palace, Wolverhampton, and Aston Villa, Chelsea’s performances have been all over the map since Potter took over the reins.

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Chelsea vs. Brentford predictions

The Blues needed to come back from a goal down against Crystal Palace and were lucky not to concede a penalty. They dominated a relegation-threatened Wolverhampton side. But the most concerning performance was their 2-0 win over Villa. Chelsea needed a blood-and-thunder performance from much-maligned goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga to steal the two points from the Villans in a game that saw Aston Villa win the expected goals battle, 1.7 to 1.0. That was the best xG output of the season for Villa, which ranks second-to-last in expected goals created this season. If you’re giving up nearly 2.0 xG to Aston Villa, you likely have some defensive issues to sort out, and that seems to be the case for Chelsea as they adapt from Tuchel’s system to Potter’s.

Despite sitting at +400 on Wednesday, Brentford is not a team to be taken lightly. The Bees already have one win over a big six club this season and were a bear to deal with last season as they upset Chelsea and Arsenal while also earning draws against Liverpool and Spurs. The Bees punch up well and have clinical finishers leading their attack, so they should be able to take advantage of any cracks in Chelsea’s defense.

Throw in the fact that this is Chelsea’s fifth match since Oct. 1, and they’ll be dealing with an injury list that could include all of Thiago Silva, Wesley Fofana, Reece James, and N’Golo Kante. You’ve got plenty of reasons to put Chelsea on upset alert at the Brentford Community Stadium on Wednesday afternoon.