English Premier League odds, pick

With the World Cup looming — it’s just one month away — the English Premier League schedule is packed to the gills in order to get as many matches in before the six-week hiatus. Eighteen of the 20 teams played midweek matches all teams involved in European competitions have played twice a week since the beginning of the month.

Two of the teams that are in the middle of a busy October are Manchester United and Chelsea. The two top-four contenders will meet on Saturday at Stamford Bridge, with the Blues currently sitting as even-money favorites, while United is +260, which is the same odds as the draw.

Manchester United vs. Chelsea odds (FanDuel):

• Manchester United: +250
• Chelsea: +105
• Draw: +250

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Manchester United vs. Chelsea prediction

Coming into the season, Manchester United was overrated by the betting market. The Red Devils hired Erik ten Hag to bring in a new era at Old Trafford and lead the club back up the table. But it was clear from the opening kick of the campaign that the Dutch manager had his work cut out for him. 

The Red Devils lost their first two matches of the season to Brighton and Brentford, leading to a mini-crisis at the Theatre of Dreams and everyone questioning whether or not this team could even contend for a spot in the top six this season. United responded by rattling off four consecutive wins — including against Liverpool and Arsenal — to get everyone back onside. A loss to City threw some cold water on expectations, and United’s defensive numbers looked pretty shaky, but then things started to trend back up with two wins against Everton and Spurs, plus a draw against Newcastle. Most importantly, the United defense has started to look more competent. 

In their last three matches, United have allowed just one goal on 1.9 expected, which is a marked improvement for a club that allowed 1.5 xG or more in six of its first seven contests in the Premier League.

Chelsea has yet to lose under new manager Graham Potter, but the Blues have yet to look terribly comfortable since making the managerial switch. Potter is unequivocally one of the best managers in the world, but his system will take some time to work with this group of players, so some growing pains are expected. 

The Blues are 5-2-0 (W-D-L) under Potter in all competitions, but their four Premier League matches have been uneven, with Chelsea posting a +0.8 expected goal differential against Crystal Palace, Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford. Chelsea finished their last two matches — a 2-0 win over Villa and a nil-nil draw with Brentford — on the wrong side of the xG ledger.

With Chelsea’s injury concerns (Reece James, N’golo Kante are out, and Thiago Silva is a doubt) and the team still adapting to a new manager, there just isn’t that much that separates these two teams right now. The Red Devils have value on the road as a decently-priced underdog.

Manchester United vs. Chelsea pick

Manchester United (+250, FanDuel)