Chelsea vs. Southampton prediction: Premier League odds, picks

It’s been a topsy-turvy start to the English Premier League season for Chelsea, and it will only get crazier this week as the Transfer Deadline looms on Thursday, Sept. 1.

After an away win against Everton, an impressive draw against Tottenham, and then a concerning loss to Leeds in their first three matches, Chelsea and Thomas Tuchel rightfully faced some skepticism over their inconsistent start to the campaign.

A spirited win over Leicester City this past weekend should help Chelsea get back on track, but even that result came with caveats as Conor Gallagher was sent off before the 30th minute and the Blues had to survive a few late-game scares from the Foxes to get the three points. 

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Chelsea vs. Leicester City prediction, odds, and picks

Even with the win, Chelsea’s overall numbers look pedestrian as they currently sit with a -1 goal differential and just a +0.4 expected goal (xG) differential. 

Some of the turbulence Chelsea has been dealing with doesn’t have anything to do with how they’ve played. New owner Todd Boehly has already spent a ton of money in the transfer window bringing in Marc Cucurella, Raheem Sterling, and Kalidou Koulibaly, but the American businessman isn’t done yet. Chelsea is close to signing Wesley Fofana from Leicester and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Barcelona, plus they’re still being linked to Everton wunderkind Anthony Gordon. With all the rumors swirling around the club, it’s excusable that the Blues are off to a bit of a wonky start. 

A trip to Southampton could provide a get-right spot for the Blues. Even though they’re on the road, Chelsea has thrived in this matchup under Tuchel, and from a stylistic standpoint, it makes a lot of sense. Chelsea is one of the best teams in the Premier League at playing through pressure, and Ralph Hassenhuttl’s Southampton are a frenetic, pressing team that doesn’t take their foot off the pedal, no matter the opponent.

This will be the fourth time that Southampton and Chelsea have met since Tuchel took over at Stamford Bridge. In the previous three meetings, Chelsea has outscored Saints, 10-2, outshot them 53-13 and created nine more big scoring chances (12-3). 

Although they kept it tight against Manchester United over the weekend in a somewhat unlucky 1-0 loss, Southampton’s high-risk, high-reward pressing style makes them vulnerable to blowouts, especially against teams that can play through pressure. 

If Chelsea can keep this game on script, they should be able to win this match by multiple goals.

The Bet: Chelsea -1.5 +150 (BetMGM)