Biden administration overstated Q2 job growth by 1 million: Philadelphia Fed

The Biden administration overstated the number of jobs created in the US during the second quarter by more than 1 million, according to a report issued by the Philadelphia Fed.

The Philadelphia Fed report found that just 10,500 net new jobs were created between March and June.

That finding is in stark contrast to numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimated that there were 1.12 million new jobs added between March and June of 2022.

Economists at the regional central bank in Philadelphia published their own report last week that gleans data from unemployment insurance payments.

The Philadelphia Fed said that its estimates “incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s” reports that are “issued monthly on a timely basis.”

The regional central bank said that its “revised estimates” are issued “five months later with a more complete picture” than that offered up by the BLS’s “current employment survey” (CES).

One expert told The Post that the stark contrast in numbers could be explained by “the use of different methods for collecting and analyzing the data.”

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers its data through surveys of employers and households, while the Philadelphia Fed relies on data from unemployment insurance payments,” Mina Tadrus, the CEO of Tadrus Capital, told The Post. 

“It is also possible that there are variations in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations when determining what counts as a new job.”

Tadrus told The Post that “the significant difference in their findings highlights the need for caution when interpreting and using economic data to inform decision-making.”

Economists have said that the Federal Reserve’s string of sharp hikes in interest rates was based primarily on the BLS’s job growth numbers, which have complicated the central bank’s efforts to get red-hot inflation under control.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration has been “lying to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda.”

“Wrong by a million jobs,” Scott tweeted last Friday.

The senator is demanding to meet with the head of the BLS.

The CES surveys some 131,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 670,000 worksites throughout the United States, according to the BLS website.

But the QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” since it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” that are conducted five months after the relevant quarter, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

“Our early benchmark process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process as we do not have access to all the data that the BLS uses,” the Philadelphia Fed said when describing its methodology.

“Therefore, we accept the BLS’s benchmarked CES estimates as the base employment level for each state.”

“Once QCEW data are released for periods beyond the latest benchmarked CES estimates, we produce our early benchmark estimates,” the Philadelphia Fed added.