Better betting value at bottom of table

Almost every race in the 2022-23 English Premier League season figures to come down to the wire.

Arsenal and Manchester City will duke it out for the title, while there are still six teams with hopes of making a run to the top four and there are a whopping nine teams that could be considered a part of the relegation battle.

Let’s start at the top of the table.

Bookmakers have made Manchester City a -145 favorite to win their third Premier League title on the spin after Arsenal (+105) dropped two points in a 2-2 draw with Liverpool on Sunday.

You may be asking why City is the odds-on favorite if it is five points back of the Gunners, but it’s because the Cityzens actually control their own destiny because of the way the schedule shakes out.

Manchester City has a game in hand and will host Arsenal in what could be a title-decider on April 26.

If Pep Guardiola’s side wins those two matches, it’ll be ahead of Arsenal.

While there is no betting value in this race at the moment, it will be very interesting to see where the market moves as we get closer to April 26.

At the moment, City is -155 to win that match, but if it continues its form we could see that number — and its title odds — continue to shrink.

The battle at the bottom of the table has a lot more teeth to it in terms of betting value.

Southampton (23 points), Leicester City (25 points) and Nottingham Forest (27 points) currently occupy the relegation spots but there are six other teams within six points of Forest.

One of those teams, Wolverhampton Wanderers, sticks out as a good value bet at 11/1 (FanDuel) to go down.

Wolves are currently sitting in 13th place with 31 points, but they’ve got a doozy of a schedule down the stretch.

Wolverhampton still has to play Arsenal, Manchester United, Brentford, Brighton and Aston Villa, and it also has a couple of matches against Leicester and Everton, two teams behind Wolverhampton in the relegation battle.

And it’s not just the schedule that is concerning for Wolves.

Wolverhampton entered the World Cup break in last place, but has salvaged its season with a 6-3-6 (W-D-L) stretch since the league resumed on Boxing Day.

So it may sound counterintuitive to say Wolves are in concerning form, but if you look under the hood you’ll see some serious red flags.

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While Wolves’ goal difference in the last 15 games is a suitable -2, their -9 expected goal differential suggests that this run has been a lot of smoke and mirrors.

Wolverhampton has allowed only 18 goals in its last 15 games, but it’s xG suggests that number should be closer to 24 and any negative regression in that department would be a big problem for a team that has really struggled to generate scoring chances.

Only Southampton and Nottingham Forest have created fewer xG than Wolverhampton since the World Cup ended.

Sitting just four points ahead of the drop zone and facing a daunting schedule, Wolves are not out of the woods yet and make a good bet to be relegated at 11/1.