Back the Gunners in this bet

August 19, 2022

There’s no doubt that Arsenal are a little bit inflated in the betting market right now. The Gunners had generated plenty of hype coming into the new season and have responded with two resounding wins to start the campaign, so naturally folks are getting carried away.

A trip to Bournemouth, the odds-on favorite to get relegated, should only add to the buzz surrounding the Gunners, who are -250 favorites on the road in a Premier League matchup. And while that price does seem a bit steep on the visitors, this is a matchup that should suit them as Bournemouth don’t have the scoring punch or creativity in the midfield to threaten Arsenal on the counter-attack.

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As we saw against Manchester City, Bournemouth can do a respectable job putting 10 men behind the ball, parking the bus and hanging on for dear life. City is in a different stratosphere compared to Arsenal right now, but the task won’t be too different for the Cherries at home on Saturday, as they’ll have very little of the ball against the Gunners.

And while last year Arsenal had issues breaking down teams that sat low and packed the penalty area, the arrival of Gabriel Jesus has alleviated those issues thus far. The 25-year-old Brazilian’s movement and willingness to make runs to stretch defenses has allowed Arsenal’s creative ball-movers an option they just didn’t have last season.

Perhaps Bournemouth’s defense can keep them in this match, but it’s hard to envision where the goals will come from for the Cherries. Bournemouth did score twice in their season-opener against Aston Villa, but they’ve created just 0.6 expected goals through 180 minutes this season. Granted, one of those matches came away to Man City as a 35/1 underdog, but even the 2-0 win against the Villans was a rather dour performance in which Bournemouth created just 0.5 xG and very little of that from open play.

Arsenal should have the ball for 70% of this match and even when they don’t, they shouldn’t ever really be in that much danger of conceding against a team that is severely lacking in creative players and finishers. Any team can get lucky and nick a goal off a corner or a counter-attack, but the plus-money price on Arsenal earning a shutout victory is too good to pass up.