Wolverhampton, Crystal Palace have value

After a brief hiatus for World Cup qualifiers, the Premier League roars back this weekend with a full slate of matches and there are two underdogs at decent odds that value-hunters should circle.

Wolverhampton Wanderers (+205) vs. Aston Villa, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET

Wolves have been a pleasant surprise in their first season under Portuguese manager Bruno Lage and have an outside shot at a Europa League spot with eight matches to go. 

Wolverhampton’s modest success is due in large part to a stingy defense that has the fourth-best defensive record in the Premier League this season. The underlying metrics do suggest that some negative regression is coming for Wolves, but there’s still a lot to like about this defense, especially against an Aston Villa attack that has been inconsistent in Steven Gerrard’s 18-match tenure. Under Gerrard, Villa have scored 27 goals, but their expected goals sits at just 20.3, for an average of 1.13 per contest.

In short, there’s very little that separates these two clubs. Both teams prefer to grind out results and turn matches into coin flips, so it would behoove bettors to back the home underdog at a tempting price on Saturday morning.

Crystal Palace (+300) vs. Arsenal, Monday at 3 p.m. ET

Crystal Palace have been nothing short of terrific in Patrick Vieira’s first season at Selhurst Park. The Eagles were expected to be a relegation contender at the start of the season, but instead Palace is comfortably sitting in the mid-table and their underlying metrics imply that they should be a few places higher in the standings.

While Palace certainly has plenty of attacking options in Wilfried Zaha, Conor Gallagher, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, it’s the defense that drives the bus in South London. Palace ranks inside the top-6 in the Premier League in expected goals allowed, shots allowed and big chances conceded. 

Despite a 4-7-4 (W-D-L) record at Selhurst Park, the Eagles have the fourth-most expected points (xPoints) at home in the Premier League this season.

In addition to their home form, the Eagles have also showed a penchant for being giant-killers. Palace has a win and a draw against Man City, a win over Tottenham and a draw against Arsenal. 

Arsenal have been playing strong stuff since the holidays, but Palace won’t be a straight-forward fixture for the Gunners and the Eagles have already shown to be a banana skin for plenty of the big fish in the Premier League this season. 

Getting 3/1 odds on Palace at home is too good to pass up and if you’re feeling frisky, a moneyline parlay with Wolves pays out 11/1.