Villarreal vs. Bayern Munich odds, predictions

We’ve reached the business end of the 2021/22 UEFA Champions League. The eight remaining teams will play the first legs of their quarterfinal fixtures on Monday and Tuesday, with the return leg taking place next week.

One quick glance at the odds suggests that the quarterfinals could be pretty straightforward. Manchester City, Liverpool, and Bayern Munich are all prohibitive favorites in their matchups with Atletico Madrid, Benfica, and Villareal, respectively, while bookmakers are having a tough time separating Chelsea and Real Madrid. 

While Atleti could give Manchester City a run for their money and are a tempting price at +850 with the Cityzens in a complicated spot with Liverpool coming to the Etihad on Sunday, there is another underdog that presents good value for bettors looking to take on one of the European giants.

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Villareal vs. Bayern Munich odds

Moneyline: Villarreal +450 | Tie +310 | Bayern Munich -175

Total Goals: Over 2.5 (-190) | Under 2.5 (+135)

Villareal (+450) vs. Bayern Munich, 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday

Unai Emery and Villareal have quietly put together one of Europe’s most impressive runs over the past two seasons. Last May, the Yellow Submarine captured their first European trophy by defeating Arsenal and then Manchester United to win the 2020/21 Europa League. Eleven months later and Villareal has its sights set on upsetting the odds once again, this time in the Champions League.

Most folks, including the oddsmakers, won’t give Villareal much of a chance to qualify for the semi-finals by defeating Bayern Munich over two legs. At their current odds of +680 to advance, Villareal has an implied win probability of 12.8%. And while getting by Bayern is unlikely, that number does seem a little low on a team with a terrific tournament pedigree that has been in strong form for most of this season.

Despite sitting in seventh place in La Liga, Villareal boast the fourth-best expected goal differential in Spain’s top flight and according to Understat’s expected points (xPoints), the Yellow Submarine should be fourth behind Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid. 

And Emery’s side has been even more impressive in the Champions League, where they finished second in a competitive group featuring Manchester United, Atalanta, and Young Boys and then put together an impressive two-leg performance to eliminate Juventus, which culminated with a comprehensive 3-0 victory in Turin.

It must be noted that Villareal has dropped three of their last four in La Liga, but those performances came in between and then right after the famous victory in Italy. 

Bayern Munich is the third favorite to win the Champions League and are running away with the Bundesliga once again. The Bavarians are a machine, but they’ve been beatable this season, especially against teams that can win the ball high up the pitch. Villareal should profile as a tricky opponent for Bayern in that regard.

Whether you want to back them to win the first leg at +450 or take a shot on them to pull the two-leg upset at +680, there’s plenty of value on the Yellow Submarine to continue their giant-killing ways in the quarterfinals.

Villarreal vs. Bayern Munich prediction: Villarreal +450