Premier League prediction: Bet on Crystal Palace

As the betting parlance goes, a must-win spot doesn’t equal a will-win spot.

I believe that’s the case with the English Premier League match Thursday between Everton and Crystal Palace, in which the former is overpriced because it finds itself in the relegation fight. This is a prime opportunity, however, to back an underdog that should be a favorite.

Over its last four fixtures, manager Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace side is unbeaten (two wins, two draws) and possesses strong underlying metrics. It has kept three of its last four opponents under one expected goal and could see some positive offensive regression based on those fixtures (four goals on 6.1 expected), per fbref.com.

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Further, although it came at its preferred venue, Palace dominated the reverse fixture. It won the match 3-1 and won the expected goal battle 2.2 to 1.33. It also won the big-scoring-chances battle 2-1 and out-touched Everton 31-11 in the attacking penalty area.

Plus, Palace has earned at least a point in 14 of 17 fixtures against bottom-half opposition this season and has notched at least 0.9 expected goals in all but four fixtures.

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Against a short-handed Everton defense, expect the Palace midfield to dominate and generate enough chances to earn points. Although I’d play the Palace moneyline at +275 or better, I’m going to hedge slightly and take Palace +0.5 at -130 or better.

The play: Crystal Palace +0.5 goals -115 (BetMGM)