historical betting trends and statistical angles

As bettors look ahead to the 2022 UEFA Champions League Final featuring Liverpool and Real Madrid, we thought it wise to look back.

Specifically, we wanted to seek out any meaningful trends and data that may help inform bets ahead of Saturday’s final at the Stade de France in Paris. Although the options for bettors are endless for Europe’s most high-profile, we looked at four specific markets that demonstrated meaningful trends.

Without further delay, here is how past finals have played out in terms of both teams to score, the total, the three-way moneyline, and the first team to score.

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Both Teams to Score + Total (2.5 Goals)

This side can bet on DraftKings Sportsbook at -105

The “yes” side of the market has failed to cash in three consecutive finals. However, that side cashed in eight straight finals before that run of three. Dating back to the 2000 Champions League Final, the “yes” side of BTTS is 14-7. 

Additionally, recent Champions League finals have tended to be very defensive in nature. All of the last three have stayed under 2.5 goals, with 10 of the last 21 staying under that benchmark as well.

Historically, the finals that feature three or more goals tend to see higher numbers. Of the last 10 finals to clear the benchmark of 2.5 goals, only half have won on the hook while four straight have seen at least four tallies. 

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Finals involving Spanish sides tend to swing more offensively. In the last 10 UCL finals featuring at least one La Liga representative, there has been an average of 3.4 goals per contest. 

In terms of previous Champions League finals featuring one Premier League side and one La Liga side, the results have been mixed.

The two most recent encounters — in 2018 between Real Madrid and Liverpool and in 2011 between Barcelona and Manchester United — both finished 3-1. In the two prior meetings, bettors saw a split in results as Barcelona defeated Manchester United 2-0 in 2009 after handing Arsenal a 2-1 defeat in 2006. 

Three-Way Moneyline & First Team to Score

This side can bet on FanDuel via their Same Game Parlay.

• Liverpool to score the first goal is -150 and Real Madrid is +130.

Historically, the Champions League Final has seen favorites clean up. Prior to Chelsea winning outright in regular time last season, the favorite on the three-way Moneyline has cashed at the end of 90 minutes + injury time in four straight, six of the last 10 and 10 of the last 17 finals, per oddsportal.com. 

Additionally, of the last five favorites to close between -135 and +135 on the three-way Moneyline, three have won the final in regular time and four have lifted the trophy (Chelsea in 2021 remains the only exception). Across the last 17 finals, the favorite to lift the trophy has done so on 13 occasions.

Although most of those trends point to Liverpool, it’s worth noting that Real Madrid was won six straight Champions League Finals in which it has played. However, the final that stops that trend is the 1981 Champions League Final when Real Madrid lost 1-0 to…..Liverpool. 

Similar to the three-way Moneyline trends, favorites have done very well to open the scoring. Over the last 10 Champions League Finals, eight favorites have opened the scoring. Expand the set to include the last 17 Champions League Finals and bettors will find the favorite has opened the scoring on 13 occasions.