Brighton an upset pick against West Ham

Brighton & Hove Albion are off and running already this season. After upsetting Manchester United, 2-1, on the road in their Premier League season-opener, the Seagulls returned home and were the much better team in a 0-0 draw with top-six hopefuls Newcastle. 

We’re only two games into the season, so underlying data is a bit noisy right now, but it’s hard not to be encouraged with what Brighton has done. Despite playing two strong sides to open the season, Brighton owns a +0.7 expected goal (xG) differential and have allowed just 1.8 xG through 180 minutes.

What’s most encouraging is that the Seagulls look like they haven’t skipped a beat despite selling off important pieces of their squad in the summer, most notably central midfielder Yves Bissouma.

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While things are pointing up for Brighton to star the season, West Ham United are trending the other way. After losing to Manchester City in their opening match, the Hammers were hard-luck losers away to newly-promoted Nottingham Forest last weekend. West Ham certainly deserved a better result against Forest, but the Hammers still allowed the Tricky Trees to create 1.6 xG (not including a disallowed goal). 

West Ham showed some serious flaws defensively over the second half of last season and those weaknesses look unimproved thus far. 

Brighton & Hove Albion are quite the opposite. A superb defensive side, the Seagulls were able to hold Manchester United at bay and then kept Newcastle to just 0.2 xG last weekend. Brighton’s inability to finish will nip them over the course of the season, but that worry is somewhat mitigated against a leaky defense. 

When the game is open and there’s space for their creative players to run into, West Ham are a dangerous side. But against a well-drilled side like Brighton, that space should be cut off, which should keep the Hammers quiet.

Few teams in the Premier League profile better as an underdog than Brighton & Hove Albion. They’re a terrific defensive side that will rarely get run off the pitch, so you can count on their ability to turn any game against any opponent at any venue into a coin flip. Throw in the fact that West Ham are struggling and just played a Europa League qualifier on Thursday and you’ve got a decent recipe for an upset on Sunday morning.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. West Ham United pick:

Brighton & Hove Albion +215 (BetMGM)