Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle prediction: Go with live underdog

If you look at the record through five matches, it makes sense that the betting market remains skeptical of Crystal Palace.

Patrick Vieira’s Eagles are 1-2-2 (W-D-L) with a -2 goal differential, but those numbers need some context.

No team in the Premier League has played a tougher stretch of opponents to open 2022-23 than the Eagles, who have taken on Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Brentford.

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Crystal Palace will face another stiff test with an away match against Newcastle on Saturday.

Despite the fact that Newcastle will be without Callum Wilson, Bruno Guimaraes and Allan Saint-Maximin, they are the +100 favorite on the three-way moneyline.

When you factor in home-field advantage (around 30-40 cents in soccer), these odds suggest that this injury-riddled version of Newcastle would be a decent favorite over Crystal Palace on a neutral field.

Palace’s defense graded out as a top-six unit last season in terms of preventing expected goals and big scoring chances.

This season they rank 15th in expected goals allowed through Matchweek 5, but when you look at the offenses they’ve played and how those matches played out, they were up 1-0 on Liverpool and 2-0 on Manchester City, it makes sense that their xGA is a little inflated. Crystal Palace is a live ’dog on Saturday.

The play: Crystal Palace +275.