Manchester City vs. Aston Villa picks, odds

Coming into the season, there were questions about how all-world striker Erling Braut Haaland would fit in Manchester City’s precise attack. Under Pep Guardiola City have been a team that values patience and picking out the right pass over direct attacks, but Haaland’s blend of size, speed and smarts make him one of the most devastating direct-attackers in the world. Because Haaland is a genius at his art and the same is true of Guardiola, it was always likely that the two would find a way to make things work. But few thought it would go this well, this quickly. The 22-year-old Norwegian has taken to Manchester City and the Premier League like a duck to water.

With back-to-back hat-tricks and a record nine goals in his first five games with City, Haaland has sent the Cityzens, who were odds-on to win the Premier League before the season, into a new dimension.  

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City is -285 on the road against struggling Aston Villa on Saturday afternoon. Because of the contrasting forms of these two teams — City seem to be firing on all cylinders, while Villa are decidedly trending in the other direction — make it hard to find value on a moneyline bet, but the total is worth considering.

With 10 goals in their last two matches and 19 through the first five matches of the season, Pep’s City look like an absolute truck right now. Haaland’s provided the Cityzens with a new look and it’s hard for any team to prepare for a team that can pass you death, but also hit the world’s best striker with a 30-yard lob to send him in on goal. 

That said, there should be some regression coming for both City and Haaland. Because of their talent up front, City are always a threat to over-perform compared to their expected goals, but right now they’re sitting on 19 goals compared to 14 xG. The gap between those numbers should tighten as the season wears on. Additionally, City haven’t really played a murderers’ row of opponents. Thus far, they’ve played Bournemouth, West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Crystal Palace. We’ve yet to see them truly be tested.

Aston Villa likely won’t be the team to do that, but Villa are a low-event team that prefer to play a lumbering, conservative style of soccer. Steven Gerrard has come under fire for that approach and the lack of results that Villa has accrued of late, but it’s hard to imagine the Villans abandoning ship and throwing caution to the wind against the best team in the world.

And it would be surprising to see Villa threaten the City defense all that much. While the Cityzens have been leaky of late, allowing five goals in their last three games, they’ve only conceded 3.43 expected goals on the season so far. 

Backing the Under 2.5 goals in a match that features Manchester City and Erling Haaland could be torturous, but there’s no doubt that this number is inflated because of the gaudy numbers we’ve seen the Cityzens put up against some also-rans this season.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa pick

The Bet: Under 2.5 (+162)