Odds and pick for Real Madrid vs. Celtic

Celtic Park in Glasgow, Scotland, will be absolutely rocking on Tuesday. 

For the first time since 2017-18, Celtic Football Club finds itself in the group stage of the Champions League, and this time around, it actually feels like the Bhoys have a chance to make some noise. 

Off to a flying start in the Scottish Premiership and coming into the week buoyed thanks to a 4-0 pasting of their eternal rivals, Rangers, in the Old Firm Derby on Saturday, you can forgive Celtic players and supporters for believing that they have a chance to do the unthinkable on Tuesday and upset defending champions Real Madrid. 

Oddsmakers are a little more skeptical, however, as the Scottish side is currently priced as +400 home underdogs, while Real Madrid are odds-on at -165. The game kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET and will be streaming on Paramount Plus.

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Real Madrid vs. Celtic prediction

Some signals point to Celtic being live in this contest. 

The Scottish Premiership is not a very tough league (It’s ranked ninth in Europe between Austria and Russia), but it’s still worth noting that Celtic is off to an absolute blinding start in domestic play. The Bhoys are a perfect 6-0-0 with a ridiculous +24 goal differential thanks to 25 goals scored and just one goal against. 

According to FootyStats, Celtic are averaging a whopping 2.73 expected goals for per match and conceding just 0.93 expected goals against. 

Real Madrid is a massive step up in weight class for a team that plays in the Scottish Premiership, but Celtic should have a couple of intangibles on their side for this tilt.

First of all, this is a talented side that was largely unchanged from last season when they went on a 32-match unbeaten run to capture the Scottish Premiership. That type of cohesion is rare for a team of Celtic’s stature, as bigger clubs often come in and buy their best players, who are keen on the move to bigger leagues. The lack of turnover has turned Celtic into a well-oiled machine under manager Ange Postecoglu, who is quickly gaining attention as one of Europe’s rising managers.

How much those intangibles will matter against Real Madrid remains to be seen, but it’s certainly not a bad thing that Celtic have been trending in the right direction under Postecoglu. 

Madrid also enters Matchweek 1 of the Champions League with a perfect record domestically, but Los Blancos haven’t exactly played the toughest schedule. You can only beat the team in front of you, but Madrid will always be expected to start 4-0-0 against Almeria, Celta Vigo, Espanyol, and Real Betis. 

The underlying metrics also look great, as Madrid has posted a +6.5 expected goal differential so far in La Liga.

There’s no arguing that Real Madrid are deserving of their status as odds-on favorites over Celtic on Tuesday night, but this a tricky spot for Carlo Ancelotti’s side. They’re the defending champions and massive favorites to win Group F, so this match is nowhere near as important to them as it is to Celtic. 

Add in the fact that the Scottish side will have a raucous crowd behind them on Tuesday night and the +400 odds start to look quite enticing on the underdogs.

The Bet: Celtic (+400, FanDuel)