Rangers vs. Ajax odds and picks

One of the Champions League darlings last season, AFC Ajax out of the Netherlands come into this year’s competition with a re-vamped look after they were raided during the transfer window. Such is the plight of being one of the best teams outside of Europe’s biggest leagues. 

Ajax lost Antony, Lisandro Martinez, Sebastian Haller and Ryan Gravenberch over the summer transfer window and their former manager, Erik ten Hag, left for Manchester United. Ajax were busy in the market bringing in reinforcements, but replacing a talismanic winger, your best center-back, leading goal-scorer, and a pivotal central midfielder is asking a lot, especially for a new manager. 

Even with all that turnover, Ajax is a -240 favorite in their Champions League opener against Rangers out of Scotland. The game will kick off at 12:45 p.m. on Wednesday, September 7.

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In terms of talent and Champions League experience, it makes plenty of sense that Ajax is a robust favorite at home against Rangers, but it does seem like the market is pricing this version of Ajax based on what we saw out of them during the last few seasons under ten Hag, when they were a force to be reckoned with in Europe. But the truth is that despite a perfect start through their first five matches the Eredivisie, we just don’t know what to expect out of the Dutch giants in 2022-23.

Rangers have also lost a few key players, including Calvin Bassey to Ajax, from a roster that went all the way to the Europa League Final in 2022, but they have adjusted well and were able to get through a couple of tricky qualifying round fixtures to get into the group stage for the first time in a decade.

In addition to coming through the qualifying rounds, Rangers have posted a 4-1-1 start in the Scottish Premiership, though they are coming off a loss to Celtic in the Old Firm Derby over the weekend. On the season Rangers are averaging 2.26 expected goals for and 0.88 expected goals against this season. 

And while it’s been quite a while since Rangers have been in the Champions League proper, they did make it to the Europa League Final in 2022, defeating Borussia Dortmund, Braga, Red Star Belgrade and RB Leipzig along the way. Not only did Rangers navigate a tough road to get to the final last spring, but they did it with a solid defensive display that only allowed 1.21 expected goals against per match, which is quite impressive when you consider some of the opponents they faced.

That kind of experience should prove vital for Rangers in a hostile environment on Wednesday night in Amsterdam. Slowing down the Ajax attack is never easy, but Rangers’ defensive form under Gio van Bronckhorst has been solid since he took over. This could set up as a pretty good smash-and-grab spot for the underdog.

The numbers and the talent-level will point to Ajax in this one, and the Dutch side is certainly more likely to win on Wednesday, but this is a great sell-high spot on a team that has lost a ton of talent over the summer and will still be adjusting to a new manager.

Rangers vs. Ajax pick:

Rangers +550 (BetMGM)