Odds, predictions, and futures picks

The 2022 World Cup in Qatar is just six weeks away, and almost every team in the tournament has completed their warm-up schedule for the tournament. 

Brazil is still the consensus favorite to win the Jules Rimet Trophy at +430, but the five-time champions have plenty of company at the top of the board. France (+550), England (+700), Argentina (+700), Spain (+750), and Germany (+950) all look like they’ll enter the tournament with odds in the single digits.

While you can make a coherent argument as to why any one of those teams will win the World Cup, that much hype at the top of the board will allow for some strong teams in the middle of the field to have long odds.

And even though long shots don’t win the World Cup, we’ve seen a few come close. Turkey and South Korea were semi-finalists in 2002, Uruguay made it to the final four in 2010, and Croatia went to the finals in 2018. 

So, which dark horse teams can realistically go on a run in Qatar?

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2022 World Cup futures odds, picks, and predictions

United States of America (+11000, FanDuel)

International soccer is tough to project because the schedule is completely out of whack compared to other sports. International friendlies are largely meaningless, and the quality of competition is all over the map. But one thing that does help in finding long shot value is backing teams that have some cohesiveness and continuity.

After missing out on the 2018 World Cup, the Americans turned over a new leaf and handed the keys to a young core led by Christian Pulisic and Tyler Adams. While a little suspect in the middle of the defense, the Americans should have a strong midfield with Adams, Yunus Musah, and Weston McKennie and plenty of attacking options with Pulisic, Gio Reyna, Timothy Weah, and Brandon Aaronson. Team USA struggled in its last two friendlies, but those results are usually just noise more than anything else. 

In all likelihood, the Americans will know their fate right out of the gates in Qatar. The Yanks open their tournament with a match against Wales, their main competition to finish second behind England in Group B. Should the Americans win that match, these odds will slash immediately, and the path starts to open up as they’d take on the winner of Group A in the Round of 16. That would most likely set them up with a tilt against the Netherlands, which is a pretty reasonable opponent when you consider the other options out there.

If you are going to bet the Americans to win the World Cup, you may want to do it now. Bookmakers on this side of the Atlantic Ocean know they’re going to take a ton of money on the Stars & Stripes before the tournament, so there’s a chance we see this number dip below 100/1 as we get closer to the start of the tournament.

Ecuador (+15000, Caesars)

Senegal looks like they’ll be the trendiest long shot in the tournament, and that’s helping another potential dark horse in Group A fly under the radar. After finishing fourth in the always brutal CONMEBOL qualifying round, Ecuador caught quite a break by getting slotted into Group A with Qatar, the Netherlands, and Senegal.

While the Dutch are far and away the best team of the quartet, they’re a lukewarm favorite compared to some of the other blue bloods in this field. And Ecuador also should benefit from opening its campaign against Qatar.

Although it’s a tricky fixture since Qatar is the host and FIFA is, well, FIFA, La Tri are +105 favorites to win that match, which would put them in the driver’s seat to qualify for the Round of 16. 

Like the Americans, there’s a bright, young core on this Ecuador roster that has already navigated a really tough qualifying campaign. Whether or not they’ll score enough remains to be seen, but Ecuador tick a lot of boxes for a team in the triple-digits.