Premier League odds, pick Friday

Chelsea Football Club has a lot of work to do if it wants to salvage this season. The Blues currently sit in 10th place in the Premier League and are 10 points behind Manchester United and Newcastle in the race for a Champions League spot.

The Blues own a +1 goal difference, but are in the red with a -2.5 expected goal differential through 20 matches. Those are numbers you’d associate with a mid-table side, not one that was projected to be firmly in the hunt for Champions League football.

Chelsea vs. Fulham prediction

(3 p.m. ET)

A change in manager — from Thomas Tuchel to Graham Potter — back in October hasn’t seemed to help much. Chelsea has five wins, five losses and four draws in the EPL under Potter and its -0.15 xG difference in those 14 matches suggest that is a fair record for this club.

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Fulham has been similarly mediocre in that same span, but that is a huge compliment for the newly promoted Cottagers. Fulham’s defense continues to be leaky and is due for regression, but the Chelsea attack has looked out of sync for quite some time. The Blues have 14 goals on just 18.6 expected goals in their last 14 contests. Fulham has scored 20 on 20.9.

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There will come a time to bet against this over-performing Fulham offense, but we’re not there yet. Feel free to take a shot against the struggling Blues and back the Cottagers at +475 on Friday afternoon.

Chelsea vs. Fulham pick

Fulham +500 (BetRivers)