Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds

The biggest match of the 2022-23 Premier League season has arrived. Manchester City will travel to Arsenal on Wednesday afternoon as the top two teams in the EPL will face-off for the first time this campaign. 

Arsenal currently has a three-point lead with a game in hand on City, but the bookmakers make the title race basically a dead heat. If there is a winner on Wednesday, the odds will flip in their favor.

The bookies have installed City as a +135 favorite on Wednesday, with Arsenal sitting at +195 to get the three points. The draw is +240.

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Man City vs. Arsenal pick: Draw +240 (FanDuel)

This is an interesting time for these two teams to meet for the first time. While Arsenal have been flying all season, they have finally hit some adversity over the past week. The Gunners lost as massive favorites away to Everton 10 days ago and then followed that up with a draw against Brentford at home. You could make a salient, logical argument that Arsenal were outplayed in both contests and were lucky to even get one out of a possible six points.

The Gunners allowed 3.7 expected goals total against Everton and Brentford while managing to create just 2.5 for themselves. It was the first time all season that Arsenal allowed more than 1.6 expected goals in back-to-back contests and Brentford’s 2.0 xG was the worst mark of the season for Mikel Arteta’s side.

Perhaps it’s just a blip in an otherwise all-time season for Arsenal, but if they’re struggling to stop Everton and Brentford, you’d have to imagine that Arteta will be extra cautious against the best offense in the Premier League. 

Manchester City is coming off a comprehensive victory over Aston Villa over the weekend, but the Cityzens have also dealt with some inconsistent form of late. City have won just five of eight matches in the Premier League since the World Cup hiatus and were eliminated from the EFL Cup by Southampton.

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Prior to Arsenal’s dip in form, you’d have to imagine that Manchester City would need to go all out to win this match to keep themselves in the race. But City made up some ground over the weekend, which changes the calculus a bit for the visitors. Instead of this being a must-win for City, it is now a must-not-lose, so we could also see a pretty conservative approach from Pep Guardiola’s side. 

By basically every metric, these are the top two sides in the Premier League by a long stretch and both City and Arsenal do a lot of the same things very well. That sets this game up to be more a grind-it-out chess match than a high-event thriller.

The draw should always be in play on Wednesday and not many people will want to bet the tie in the biggest match of the season, so the number could tick up even further.