Maccabi Haifa vs. Juventus prediction: Champions League odds, pick

October 5, 2022

It’s been a season to forget for Juventus. In fact, it’s been a couple of seasons to forget for Juventus.

The Italian Giants have lost their first two Champions League matches and sit seventh in Serie A with a 3-4-1 (W-D-L) record and a +7 goal differential. This coming off a 2021-22 campaign that saw Juve finish fourth in the league and exit the Champions League in the Round of 16. Those are well below the standards of the Old Lady, which won nine straight Serie A titles and were Champions League runners-up twice between 2011-12 and 2019-20.

But this Juventus team just doesn’t have the same amount of talent or resources as those title-winning teams had. With so much money going to the Premier League these days, the top teams in Italy, Germany, and Spain are falling further afield compared to their peers in English soccer. Juventus have been as hard hit as any elite team in Europe. At the current moment, it’s fair to say that Juventus are just an average side in this competition of 32 teams, well behind the truly elite teams like Man City, Bayern Munich, PSG, Liverpool, etc.

And while Juve still deserves to be massive favorites over Maccabi Haifa out of Israel, it is fair to wonder if these odds are actually too wide, which is not something anybody would have expected to say before the tournament.

Massimiliano Allegri, head coach of Juventus Fc looks on during the Serie A football match between Juventus Fc and Bologna Fc.

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The biggest longshot in the 32-team field, Maccabi Haifa, have acquitted themselves quite admirably through the first two matches of their Champions League campaign. The Israeli champions took a 1-0 lead over PSG and hung with the Parisiens for the full 90 minutes, despite a 3-1 loss. According to expected goals models, the game was close to a coin flip, with Haifa creating 1.83 xG against 2.02 for PSG. That’s a hugely impressive output considering the pre-match odds.

Haifa would also lose their next game, 2-0, to Benfica, but once again the final score is a little misleading. The Greens held Benfica scoreless through the first half before the Portuguese club were finally able to break through in the second half with a pair of tallies. Once again, the xG suggested the match was closer than the box score, as Maccabi Haifa created 0.95 xG and Benfica put up 1.85.

At the moment, Juventus just aren’t the type of team that can play any team in this competition off the park. And if you’re going to be laying -350, that’s exactly what you need team to do. It may sound a little crazy, but Haifa are worth a bet in Turin on Wednesday.