Leeds United vs. Manchester United pick

February 8, 2023

One of English soccer’s most bitter rivalries will be renewed on Wednesday when Leeds United travels to Old Trafford to take on Manchester United. It is Leeds’ first match since sacking manager Jesse Marsch.

While Leeds is reeling heading into this showdown at the Theatre of Dreams, Manchester United is absolutely bouncing. The Red Devils are 5-1-1 with a +8 goal difference and +6.1 expected goal differential in seven matches since the World Cup.

Leeds United vs. Manchester United prediction: Over 3 goals (-110, FanDuel)

United’s hot run of form, coupled with a couple of poor results from Arsenal and Manchester City, has the Red Devils dreaming of making a run at the Premier League title. With a win over Leeds, United would be just five points behind Arsenal for first place.

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But Leeds could prove a tricky outfit, as its underlying numbers imply it is not nearly as poor as its woeful 4-6-10 (W-D-L) record suggests. According to UnderStat, Leeds should have close to 25 points based on its xG output, but it is stuck on 18 and currently is mired in an 0-3-3 slump since the World Cup.

All signs point to Leeds positively regressing offensively. We know that this team can be a handful to stop, but the defense remains a red flag and should be in for a long day against this in-form United side.

Both of these teams will want to be on the front foot, which should lead to a back-and-forth affair. Back the Over and enjoy what should be a thriller.

Leeds United vs. Manchester United pick: Over 3 goals (-110, FanDuel)