A futures pick to consider before the Premier League’s season opener

The English Premier League returns this weekend after a three-month hiatus as Manchester City vies for a fifth-consecutive title. 

However, this season could be controversial for City considering it must appear before an independent disciplinary commission to account for 115 alleged breaches of the league’s financial rules.

Punishments could range from fines to a transfer ban, points deduction and even expulsion from the league if found guilty. 

As a result, this is not the season you’d want to run to the window and blindly back the Cityzens as favorites to win the title, given their +137 odds at bet365. 

City beat out Arsenal, which finished runners-up in the last two seasons, and this third time could be the charm for the Gunners, who are seeking to end their 21-year title drought. 

However, with Arsenal’s title odds at +162, there might be an even better option in our quest for value in the futures market. 

Prioritizing defense over offense 

Arsenal fell short of the title by just two points despite allowing the fewest goals in the league (29).

In contrast, City’s ability to score a league-best 96 goals was crucial to its title run. 

With the hope of finally getting over the line, Arsenal fans have clamored for the club to dip into the transfer market and sign an out-and-out striker. 

The only problem is, the Gunners have already spent aggressively over the past three seasons, ranking second ($646 million) in expenditures behind Chelsea ($1.3 billion). 

The Gunners might also lack the necessary funds or flexibility to add a striker while remaining in compliance with the league’s financial rules. 

Arsenal lost two more matches than City, and had it been able to convert some of those losses into draws, it could have been the difference in lifting the cup. 

Thus, a team can prioritize its defense and still have a chance to win the title. 

Calafiori can be a game-changer 

Arsenal’s decision to sign Riccardo Calafiori away from Bologna for $55 million signals its intent on the defensive side of the ball. 

Calafiori only recently became a full international after making his debut in a June friendly against Turkey.

He then went on to start all four games for Italy at the Euros. 

The 22-year-old can play on the back line, whether centrally or on the left, and he’s shown tremendous passing range while also being able to possess the ball. 

As good as Arsenal was in keeping the ball out of the net, the left side of the pitch was often a weakness as teams looked to isolate Oleksandr Zinchenko. 

Calafiori is a far superior defender than Zinchenko and, according to Opta Sports, he ranked second in recoveries per 90 minutes (7.5) among defenders last season with a minimum of 10 appearances. 

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Big season ahead for Arsenal midfielder 

While Calafiori should certainly boost the Gunners’ defense, it’ll be the playmakers who will likely draw the headlines. 

Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard is the captain and man in the middle of the pitch who knits everything for the Gunners.

The Norwegian registered 11 assists in 2023-24 and chipped in with eight goals.

Before that season, Odegaard finished with 15 goals. 

While many of the top Premier League players were in Germany for the Euros, Odegaard could only watch as a spectator after Norway missed out on qualifying. 

If Arsenal manages to win the title, Odegaard will likely play a role and possibly go on to win the PFA Player of the Year award. 

Recommendation: Odegaard to win PFA Player of the Year (14/1, bet365)