Euro 2024 prediction, odds: Long shots to back

Real Madrid’s win over Borussia Dortmund officially ended the 2023-24 European club soccer season, but you won’t have to wait too long for more high-stakes footy to come your way. 

The UEFA European Championships, a tournament held every four years to determine the champion of the continent, get underway in Germany on June 14. 

The field features 24 teams split into six groups of four, with the top two teams in each set advancing to the Round of 16, along with the four best third-place finishers. 

England — which hasn’t won a major international trophy since 1966 — is the tournament favorite at +320 odds, but the Three Lions are hardly a runaway at the top of the board.

Kylian Mbappe and France are the second-choice at +380 with Germany (+430), Spain (+650) and Portugal (+700) rounding out the top five. 

While the winner of this tournament is likely to come from that group of five teams, the Euros rarely go according to script, and we almost always see a major surprise make a run into the semifinals or beyond. 

The most famous example was when Greece pulled one of the biggest stunners in the history of international soccer when it won Euro 2004 as a 150/1 outsider.

But Greece is hardly the only dark horse to make a run at the European Championships. Turkey, Russia, Czechia, Wales and Denmark have all made runs to the semifinals in the last five iterations of this tournament. 

With that in mind, we’ll make sure to circle a couple of long shots for our betting card at Euro 2024.

Euro 2024 long shots

Serbia (80/1, DraftKings) 

The sorting hat didn’t do Serbia any favors by putting them in a group with England, Denmark and Slovenia, but there’s upside to a tough draw: If you survive it, you’re almost certainly going to be in good form as you head into the business end of the tournament.

And even though the Eagles will be considered the clear third choice behind England and Denmark, the gap between them and the Danes isn’t wide enough that we should write off the Serbs’ chances of pushing for a spot in the top two. 

Serbia is built down the middle with hard-to-handle striker Aleksandar Mitrovic leading the line in front of a technically gifted midfield and physical centerbacks ahead of goalkeeper Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, who is coming off a strong season with Torino. 

Being tough to beat is a very valuable asset when it comes to tournament soccer and Serbia combines that quality with some high-upside skill, making them a sleeper worth backing. 

Romania (230/1, FanDuel) 

Let’s get crazy. 

There will be little to no talk about Romania’s prospects of making a run at Euro 2024, but that’s not a bad things for value-hunters looking for a team that absolutely has the potential to outrun these long odds. 

Most importantly, Romania has a terrific draw. The Tricolours were put into Group E with Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine, which gives them a legitimate chance to finish in second and automatically qualify for the Round of 16. 

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But it’s not just the draw that makes the Tricolours an attractive long shot to back. They are also coming off a qualifying campaign that saw them top their group with six wins, four draws and no losses. It wasn’t a beast of a schedule, but they did finish five points ahead of Switzerland.