Premier League odds, picks Monday

There were a few disappointing teams during the 2022-23 Premier League season, but none missed the mark more than Chelsea.

Despite an alarmingly high transfer budget and a roster filled with star power, the Blues finished in 12th place with 44 points and a -9 goal difference. It was their worst season since 1993-94 when they finished in 14th.

What was even more concerning was that Chelsea went through three high-profile managers during the season and none could figure out how to get this roster in sync. The talent was there, but the results were not.

Chelsea vs. Fulham prediction

(3 p.m. ET., USA Network)

It’s more of the same this season under new manager Mauricio Pochettino.

Although Chelsea’s season got off to a decent start with an impressive draw against Liverpool, things have gone pear-shaped over the past five weeks. The Blues have one win — against relegation favorites Luton Town — on the season and haven’t scored a goal in their past three matches against Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.

The biggest issue for the Blues is a familiar one. They just can’t find a way to score.

Last season, Chelsea ranked 15th in the Premier League with 38 goals, and this year they’re on pace to be even worse with five from six matches and three of those scores came in the same game against Luton Town. Chelsea has only scored in three of its six contests this season.

While those looking for a silver lining can argue that the numbers suggest regression is coming,

Chelsea have created the sixth-most expected goals (11.5) and rank sixth in shots per 90 minutes this season, the fact that their lack of finishing punch is a problem that extends to last season makes me a little skeptical that the Blues will just start scoring for fun.

That said, this Monday’s match with Fulham should provide Chelsea with a decent chance to find some positive momentum in front of goal.

The Cottagers were one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League last season and they aren’t faring much better through the first half-dozen matches in 2023-24.

Fulham ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of goals allowed (10), but no team has conceded more big scoring chances per match and only four clubs have surrendered more expected goals than the Cottagers this season.

Fulham was a dangerous team going forward last season and having a reliable goal-scorer like Aleksandar Mitrovic helped paper over their defensive flaws, but the Serbian striker has moved to a new club and his departure has turned Fulham from an average attacking side into a poor one.

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They shouldn’t be too much of a threat to Chelsea, which should allow the Blues the opportunity to take a few more risks in order to create high-quality chances.

Chelsea’s problems in front of goal are worrisome in the big picture and they will likely keep the Blues from contending for a spot in the top six this season, but they should have enough stylistic advantages to run over a vulnerable defense at Craven Cottage on Monday night.

The pick: Bet Chelsea +105 at BetMGM.