Odds, pick for World Cup Tuesday

At the World Cup for the first time since 1958, there was some buzz about Wales in Qatar. The Dragons were drawn into a manageable group, they had a lot of momentum, and their core had a ton of experience playing together. 

The hype around Wales got louder after the Dragons earned a 1-1 draw against the USA in their first match, but it was quickly doused by Iran, who dominated the Welsh in a 2-0 victory. 

Those results set up a scenario where Wales can only advance if they beat England and USA/Iran ends in a draw, OR they defeat England by four goals.

That means Wales, a team built to sit back and hang around until they can find an opening, will need to take the game to England, one of the tournament favorites.

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England vs. Wales prediction

We’ve seen two different versions of England so far in this tournament. In their opener against a distracted Iranian side, the Three Lions were impeccable en route to a 6-2 victory. England’s attacking and playmaking talent shone through against the Lions of Persia, and it looked like the concerns over Gareth Southgate’s preferred style of play were put to bed.

But against the USMNT, the English looked like a completely different team. Without the ability to dominate the midfield, the Three Lions looked out of ideas going forward and were the second-best team on the field against the underdog Americans.

As a team, Wales profiles much closer to Iran, and you’d imagine that England should have no problem dictating the tempo against the Dragons.

Betting on the World Cup?

But the situation requires Wales to be brave and abandon its defensive shell. No matter what happens in USA vs. Iran, Wales needs to beat England to have a chance to qualify for the knockout rounds. Perhaps their best path to a victory is to continue to play a defensive style and hope they get a moment of magic from Gareth Bale, but that will only work if they can keep England off the board. That is unlikely.

A goal from England would open things up and force Wales, a team that is not comfortable pushing forward, to take a lot of risks. Not only does that make the Dragons more likely to score, but it also makes them more vulnerable to counterattacks.

There are a number of different paths this game could take, but a lot of them feature crooked numbers, so playing a big price on Over 3.5 goals at FanDuel seems a worthwhile bet.

England vs. Wales pick

Over 3.5 goals (+245, FanDuel)