Lionel Messi could contend for MLS Golden Boot award

The Miami Marlins are in the thick of the NL wild card race.

The Miami Dolphins are gearing up for a big season in the competitive AFC.

The Miami Heat are fresh off an NBA Finals appearance. 

But the talk of South Beach is Inter Miami CF, as Lionel Messi’s arrival has rejuvenated the last-place MLS squad.

He’s made only two appearances and played less than two hours of match time, but the Argentinian superstar has already netted three goals and added an assist, all in Leagues Cup action. 

Although Messi’s arrival turns Miami into a potential juggernaut, it might be too late for its hopes this season.

When MLS regular season play returns in August, Miami must make up a 12-point deficit over the remaining 12 games to clinch a wild card playoff spot.

So, the team probably falls short. 

But that doesn’t mean this season needs to be a failure. 

Instead, this recent run has me asking: How high can Messi fly in his inaugural MLS season?

Could he win the MLS Golden Boot despite playing a third of the season? 

MLS Golden Boot Odds

Here’s the current market for MLS Regular Season Top Goalscorer at FanDuel:

• Hany Mukhtar: +340
• Denis Bouanga: +360
• Luciano Acosta: +500
• Lionel Messi: +550
• Giorgos Giakoumakis: +650

And here are the current top goalscorers for this season so far: 

• Hany Mukhtar: 13
• Luciano Acosta: 12
• Denis Bouanga: 12
• Cristian Espinoza: 11
• Julian Carranza: 10
• Lucas Zelarayan: 10
• Alan Pulido: 10
• Jesus Ferreira: 10
• Georgios Giakoumakis: 10

As previously mentioned, Messi has three goals across his two appearances. 

The +550 odds imply a 15.4% shot that Messi will win the award. 

So, what would it take for Messi to win this award? And do we think those odds are greater than 15%? 

MLS Golden Boot Expectations

No player has ever won the MLS Golden Boot with less than 19 goals scored in a season.

You’d think you’d need at least 20 to take home the award, although no player is on pace to do so.

Based on Football Reference’s Expected Goals metric (xG), which tries to cut through luck and randomness, three players have between 10 and 11 xG this year (Mukhtar, Brian White, Bongokuhle Hlongwane). 

Using this xG metric, we could assume Mukhtar scores around 0.5 goals per 90 minutes played.

That’d give him around five or six goals for the remainder of the regular season, placing him around 19 goals.

So, let’s assume Messi needs 20 goals in 12 appearances to earn the award. 

By the numbers, that seems plausible.

He’s currently averaging 2.5 goals per 90 minutes on this side of the pond, meaning he’d need eight full games of playing time (90 minutes) at this current pace to reach the 20-goal mark. 

Of course, xG says this pace is impossible to maintain.

And it’s hard to project Messi’s playing time for the remainder of the season.

He definitely won’t play every minute of every game. 

Then again, Messi consistently outperforms his xG metrics because of his finishing ability, and he doesn’t need every minute of every game to reach that mark.

How have other international players fared in MLS?

Messi is a year removed from winning the 2022 World Cup Golden Ball.

He’s two years removed from a 30-goal La Liga season. 

He’s not as dangerous as he was in his mid-20s, but a 36-year-old Messi is no slouch. 

Most importantly, he’s never played against weaker competition. 

There are prior examples of international superstars coming to MLS in their latter years and dominating. 

Carlos Vela scored 16 goals in the 2013-14 La Liga season at age 24.

He played an entire MLS season in 2019 at age 30 and posted a 34-goal, 16-assist season.

Sebastian Giovinco scored 15 goals in the 2011-12 Serie A season at age 23. He scored 22 goals across 32 starts with Toronto FC in 2015 at age 28. 

Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored 52 goals in two seasons with the LA Galaxy at age 36, including 30 during the 2019 season. 

The point: Something similar has happened before.

Messi’s Scoring Prowess

Messi has a history of potent offensive stretches. 

He scored 19 goals in 12 appearances during the 2015 season. Less than two years ago, he scored 16 goals in 12 games during the 2021 season. 

The most similar comparison to this MLS season is his 2012 La Liga run, where he posted 22 goals in 12 appearances down the regular-season stretch.

Should you bet Messi to win MLS Golden Boot this season?

So, can a 36-year-old MLS Messi be as prolific as a 24-year-old La Liga Messi? 

The answer might come down to his coaches and teammates. 

How aggressive will Miami manager Tata Martino be with his new superstar?

Will Messi play enough minutes and be fed enough opportunities to post gaudy scoring numbers?

Can we accurately project motivation for a last-place Miami team? 

Miami has some competent forwards, including former MLS Golden Boot winner Josef Martinez – those two have built an instant connection on the pitch – but this is still a last-place squad.

Will other teams devote all their resources to stopping Messi, thus stunting his goal-scoring ability? 

Only time will tell. 

Regarding the previously mentioned FanDuel market, too many outside factors are at play to accurately project Messi’s output. 

When considering the numbers, the +550 odds are enticing.

But, ultimately, don’t take the bait.